We’re coming off a .500 weekend in college football – 2-0 on "Big Plays", 2-3 on "Other Plays", 1-2 on "MP Leans.”
Here This week’s Big Plays from Massey-Peabody (these plays are 7-7 year-to-date). Lines are from the South Point as of Thursday morning.
Florida State -15.5 vs. Maryland
• Florida State (M-P rank – Overall/Off/Def: 3/4/9)
• Maryland (55/77/40)
That Maryland has managed to crack the AP Top 25 this week shows how outcome-based the polls really are. Massey-Peabody has them a full 30 spots worse at No. 55. But they are undefeated! So they must be good! (rolls eyes).
Where Maryland has excelled this season has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they have allowed just 10.3 points per game, third best in the nation. Florida State has given up slightly more points per game (15), but substantially fewer yards per play (3.86) than Maryland (4.97). Sure enough, Maryland is third best this season in defensive scoring efficiency, one of the stats used in the Massey-Peabody model, but it appears they've been lucky in scoring defense.
What really hurts Maryland in our model is their prior. They were below average on defense last year, and despite the improvement we've seen, we've found empirically that we can't just wipe the slate clean and pretend last year didn't happen. Often when a team exhibits such a drastic change from the year before, analysts and pundits form a narrative trying to explain the change. There aren't any reasonable explanations readily available in the case of Maryland.
Historical data show that last year's performance – as well as recruiting and returning starters – is still meaningful in forecasting future performance. For that reason, we are selling Maryland here and taking a far superior Florida State team laying the points.
Akron +5 vs. Ohio (there are 5.5s still available)
• Akron (Overall/Off/Def: 100/102/95)
• Ohio (104/97/101)
Akron has yet to win a game against an FBS team. Ohio is 3-1 coming off three straight wins. But as we continually preach, outcome does not tell the whole story.
Akron was a yard away from winning at Michigan (No. 22 in the MP rankings), lost on the road to UCF (MP No. 33), and lost by five to Louisiana-Lafayette (MP No. 75). Ohio was trounced by No. 11 Louisville before narrowly beating No. 89 North Texas and No. 68 Marshall at home (they also won handily over FCS opponent Austin Peay).
But scores don't tell the entire story, either. Controlling for home field and opponent, Akron has been better than Ohio this season on both offense and defense for all four M-P statistics. Why is Akron an underdog? Because they are 1-4 and Ohio is 3-1. And because Akron went 1-11 last year and Ohio went 9-4 (including a blowout win in the Independence Bowl).
San Diego State -5 vs. Nevada
• San Diego State (Overall/Off/Def: 59/83/46)
• Nevada (103/58/114)
To call Nevada a bad defensive team would be a massive understatement. Controlling for home field, game situation and opponent strength, Nevada's defense ranks 116th this year in fundamental rushing, 120th in play value, 117th in play success and 84th in scoring efficiency. They've been lucky to allow only 42.8 point per game to FBS opponents! Yet Nevada does have two FBS wins, winning at home vs. No. 110 Hawaii (who does not travel well) and No. 107 Air Force.
On offense, Nevada's strength is their run game. Everything else has been subpar, but they're still ranked 58th on offense due our prior being a little above average (the prior contributes +1.45 points on offense to their overall rating).
San Diego State lost their season opener at home to Eastern Illinois, an FCS team. Since that game is not considered in our rating system, their rating is probably a little inflated. In games we can evaluate, San Diego State has played poorly on offense, but been solid on defense, ranking above average in every category except scoring efficiency.
Their deficiency in scoring efficiency makes sense, given their turnover margin of -6, which ranks 118th in the country.
In contrast, Nevada is +7 in turnovers, ninth in the country. As always, we are in the business of separating process from outcome – San Diego State has had some bad breaks, while Nevada has benefited from some positive variance.
Florida -11 vs. Arkansas
• Florida (Overall/Off/Def: 4/27/2)
• Arkansas (53/49/48)
Florida is ranked No. 4 in our ratings but only No. 18 in the AP poll. Why? They lost a close game a few weeks ago on the road to a good Miami team. If they had squeaked out the win, they're at least 10 spots higher in the polls.
This could also be a case of the market overreacting to the Jeff Driskel injury. The fact that Driskel, not Tyler Murphy, was the starter is informative and causes us to downgrade Florida a bit, but the strength of the Florida team is its second-ranked defense.
Arkansas will play its sixth game in as many weeks, coming off of losses to Texas A&M and Rutgers. While there's no doubt they've made strides with new coach Bret Bielema, their offense is mediocre and will have some trouble scoring against Florida.
Notre Dame +6 vs. Arizona State
• Notre Dame (Overall/Off/Def: 21/31/17)
• Arizona State (25/17/43)
Arizona State has impressed on offense, but if not for an officiating gaffe at the end of their Sept. 21 game vs. Wisconsin, they’d have two losses like Notre Dame does. The Irish remain high in our ratings despite losses to Michigan and Oklahoma, although they didn’t really show much in their wins, squeaking by Michigan State at home, coming from behind to beat Purdue on the road, and winning by only 22 in their opener vs. Temple.
Why does Notre Dame remain so high? Because they were a darn good team last year, and despite the QB change, we expected they would still be very good. Arizona State has unquestionably been the better team so far this season, but by just a few points. Even if you throw out the priors entirely, there is value on Notre Dame here as a home dog.
To see the rest of Massey-Peabody’s Week 6 college plays, visit The Linemakers on Sporting News.