LAS VEGAS – The Alabama Crimson Tide will host the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) in what has been a very entertaining SEC matchup the last couple years. The Aggies have split the last two meetings with Alabama straight-up but are 2-0 against the spread, although they will be without the player who made these games so exciting -- Johnny Manziel.
The Line: Alabama -14, Total: 64
Line movement: Alabama opened as a 14-point home favorite at The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas on Sunday but dropped to -11.5 there and at other shops Tuesday, before the line moved back up later in the week. The total was bet up from 61.5. For updated spreads and totals from around Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Texas A&M is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against SEC opponents.
Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against SEC opponents. The Tide, though, are on a 1-8-1 ATS run.
The OVER is 3-0-1 in Alabama’s last four home games against SEC opponents.
Both teams struggling to score: It’s easy to assume the lack of big-name quarterbacks heading into this year’s meeting between the Texas A&M Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide is the primary reason each of them is struggling to score points like they are accustomed to. Sure, Texas A&M will not have Johnny Manziel under center while A.J. McCarron will not be suiting up for Alabama because both of them are in the NFL.
But Kenny Hill threw for a school-record 511 yards in a 52-28 season-opening win for the Aggies at South Carolina, and Blake Sims had the second-highest single-game passing total ever for the Crimson Tide with 445 yards in a 42-21 victory against Florida less than a month ago on Sept. 20. So what gives? Alabama head coach Nick Saban addressed the topic on Monday.
“Everybody's got such a high expectation for what our team should be,” Saban said. “It really sorta, if you want to know the truth about it, (ticks) me off when I take to people that have this expectation like they’re disappointed that we only won the game, 14-13, and in the way we played.”
The fact of the matter is that the Crimson Tide have scored 31 points combined in splitting the last two games, with the UNDER cashing both times, after averaging 42 in the first four and the OVER going 3-1. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has scored progressively less in each of its past three games, averaging less than 29 points during that stretch, with the UNDER going 2-1, after scoring at a clip of better than 55 points per game in the first four.
Polls under rate Bama: Saban is not the only one who does not get what all the fuss is about with regards to criticism of his Alabama team. The Crimson Tide may be viewed as the No. 7 team in the country in the latest AP Top 25 and USA Today Coaches polls, but the Don Best/Linemakers College Football Power Ratings still have them at No. 2.
From a betting perspective, that means they'd be favored against every team in the country except Florida State. The top-ranked team in the polls – Mississippi State – is not even in the top 10 of our poll. The Bulldogs are No. 14 and projected to finish with a 10-2 mark following predicted losses to the Crimson Tide in two weeks and Ole Miss Rebels in the Egg Bowl at the end of the regular season.
Texas A&M is currently rated just one spot behind Mississippi State at No. 15. The Aggies’ Power Rating (115.5) is 6.5 points below Alabama’s (122) and eight points less than the No. 1 team, the defending national champion Florida State Seminoles (124).
Weather: The forecast calls for warm temperatures, around 79 degrees, with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | TAM team page | ALA team page
The Linemakers' lean: Texas A&M has covered against Alabama the last two seasons against better Alabama teams, and despite a two-game losing streak (to both Mississippi schools), they should be able to move the ball and score, something Alabama had difficulty doing last week at Arkansas. Alabama has covered only once in its last 10 games. The plays are Texas A&M and UNDER.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
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