LAS VEGAS – The Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Stanford Cardinal in their annual rivalry game on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC), with both teams looking to stay in contention for a possible playoff berth. The Fighting Irish are also looking to stay unbeaten and earn a win against a top 25 team for the first time this season.
Notre Dame has dropped four of the last five meetings with Stanford, failing to cover the spread in three of the past four. The lone cover in that stretch came as a 16.5-point underdog at Stanford last season.
The Line: Stanford -2, Total: 47
Line movement and notes: Notre Dame opened as a 1-point home favorite at The Wynn on Sunday but the line moved to Stanford -1.5 on Monday before hitting the midweek consensus of -2. On Wednesday, there were -1.5s and +2.5s to be had around town. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Stanford is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings. Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS in its last three home games. Notre Dame is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against Pac-12 opponents.
The UNDER is 11-2 in Stanford’s last 13 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The UNDER is 4-0 in Notre Dame’s last four home games against Pac-12 opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Notre Dame's last eight games overall.
Notre Dame goes from favorite to underdog: As reported here earlier in the week, this annual rivalry game was one of five matchups that saw favorites turn into underdogs following early betting action at The Wynn. Notre Dame lost last year’s meeting at Stanford, 27-20, yet covered as a 16.5-point underdog. The Irish won the previous game played in South Bend, 20-13, in overtime two years ago, but came up just short of covering the number as a 7.5-point favorite.
“That game’s hovering either way,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News Monday. “That game has switched sides a few times. These guys meet every year, Notre Dame has beaten this team only one out of the last five. I’m kind of impressed with the way Notre Dame’s played so far. Stanford’s defense has been great. (Brian) Kelly and (David) Shaw are both very good coaches. I guess it’s right where it should be.”
Notre Dame’s schedule has been weak so far but is about to get more difficult starting with this game followed by a meeting with defending national champion Florida State in two weeks at Tallahassee. The Irish cannot afford to look past a Cardinal team whose only loss this season came at home nearly a month ago against USC.
Classic defense vs. offense matchup: Stanford has allowed only 26 points combined in four games this season, and half of those came last week in a 20-13 victory at Washington. The last three games have all stayed UNDER (the team’s season opener against UC-Davis did not have a posted total). The Cardinal have also limited Notre Dame to 20 points or less in each of the past four meetings, all of which have stayed UNDER.
Meanwhile, the Irish have scored at least 30 points in all four of their games this season while holding their opponents to 17 points or less each time. The UNDER has cashed in their last three games along with seven of eight dating back to last season.
Weather: The forecast calls for low temperatures, around 50 degrees, with a 60 percent chance of rain and winds up to 17 mph. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Stanford-Notre Dame matchup analysis | Power Ratings | STAN team page | ND team page
The Linemakers' lean: We think Stanford’s stellar defense that allows only 6.5 ppg and 195 ypg will be able to dictate the pace and keep this game UNDER the total, like 10 of their last 12 games have gone and the last three Notre Dame games have gone. Richie Baccellieri doesn’t have a lean to the side here, but Micah Roberts suggests taking +3 with the home team if it pops up. The one unified play here is UNDER the total.
Another opinion: College football handicapper Brian Edwards weighs in
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