AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the basketball season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines and spreads. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply or suggests a high chance of covering the spread, it’s a recommended play.
Not only do the Lakers give up nine 3-pointers per game, they also yield nearly 48 points per game in the paint, worst in the NBA in that category. With the Spurs in town Friday night (10 p.m. ET, ESPN), the Lakers’ defense will have to have its best performance of the season to just keep this game close.
AccuScore has the Spurs as 60.5 percent favorites to win. San Antonio is posted at -360 on the money-line, odds that imply a 78 percent chance of winning. That number does not offer good value for a bettor.
The Lakers, however, have a 58.3 percent chance of covering a 7.5-point spread as underdogs.
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 105-101. There is a 52.7 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 208.
In terms of big win (10 points or more) potential, the probabilities aren’t even close. San Antonio has more than two times the chance of L.A. at a big win. Both have similar chances at a close win (4 points or fewer): 10.8 percent vs. 10.3 percent.
AccuScore Box Score: The biggest difference in the box score is the 3-point shooting. The Spurs are projected to attempt 6-7 more 3-pointers and make 3-4 more than the Lakers. Keep an eye on L.A.'s perimeter defense. The Lakers do average more steals in the sims than the Spurs, and fewer turnovers.
Projected Leaders
Tony Parker: 17 points (7-14 FG, 0-1 3PM), 7 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 3 TOs
Kobe Bryant: 24 points (8-19 FG, 1-4 3PM), 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 4 TOs
More NBA betting info: Live odds | All of Friday's matchups
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