LAS VEGAS – The Saints face a crucial test off their bye week when they visit the Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, FOX) on Sunday. The Saints are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread in the last four meetings with the Lions, but they have covered just one of five games this season on their way to a disappointing 2-3 start. Meanwhile, Detroit has won three of four, both SU and ATS, en route to a 4-2 record overall and a tie for first place in the NFC North with the Packers.
The Line: Lions -2.5, Total: 48.5
Line movement: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and bounced between that number and -3 (even) in early wagering. The total opened at 50 and has been bet down to 48 at the Westgate, and from 51 to 48.5 at William Hill. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Saints are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with Lions. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six home games against NFC South opponents. The Saints are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games as road underdogs. The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.
The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 road games against NFC North opponents for the Saints. The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine home games against NFC South opponents for the Lions.
Lions no longer just a fantasy team: It may sound cliché to hear a team talk about how all the coaches and players care about is winning games, and they could care less about statistics. But this year’s Lions are proving that to be true through the first six games of the season under first-year head coach Jim Caldwell. Detroit is winning mainly with defense and without quarterback Matthew Stafford putting up monster numbers for your fantasy football team.
“I came in with the idea that we’re going to try to make certain that this team is more about winning than about statistical milestones, and I think that's the most important thing that you have to look at,” said Caldwell, who was an assistant on two Super Bowl-winning teams within the past eight years, the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
Stafford has been just average since All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson has been battling through a high ankle sprain. After averaging 4,885 yards over the last three seasons, Stafford is on pace to throw for 4,245 this year. However, he can’t complain considering the injuries the team has dealt on offense along with the fact that they are 4-2 straight-up and against the spread.
Johnson missed last week’s 17-3 road win against the Vikings, a game Detroit still won despite generating a season-low 255 yards offensively. The Lions rank No. 23 in the NFL in total offense with 330.2 yards per game, with the total going UNDER in their last five games since going OVER in their season-opening 35-14 victory against the Giants. Detroit is hoping to have running back Reggie Bush (ankle) back to play against his former team.
Brees unbeaten against Lions: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees has enjoyed a lot of past success against this week’s opponent, whose defense is a lot better than he has ever seen. Brees is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four career meetings with Detroit, including a 45-28 home victory in the playoffs two years ago when he threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown 14 touchdown passes and only one interception against the Lions.
However, this will be a unique situation, as Brees and the Saints find themselves as underdogs for the first time in five head-to-head matchups. New Orleans was favored by at least a touchdown in each of the previous four games between the teams with Brees under center, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. And the last three all took place at home in the Superdome. The Saints have lost eight of their past 10 games on the road as dogs, failing to cover nine of 11 away from home overall.
Injuries that matter: Visit here for all Week 7 NFL injuries.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | NO team page | DET team page
The Linemakers' lean: The Saints are a bad road football team, and things will get worse for them Sunday at Detroit against the NFL’s top-ranked defense. What’s going on with the Saints? Is Drew Brees finally showing some age? Whatever the case, they're losing money for their backers weekly. The only game they covered was at home against Minnesota, and that was a 20-9 struggle. The Lions allow only 13 points per game and take care of losing teams, of which the Saints are one. The plays are on Detroit and UNDER.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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