AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a money-line pick for the Week 4 NFL card:
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC
Saints quarterback Drew Brees seems to enjoy playing on the road against the Cowboys. With a 3-0 record at Dallas, Brees and the Saints head into Week 4's Sunday night matchup with tons of confidence. The South Point sports book in Las Vegas has the Cowboys as +150 underdogs on the money-line, implying about a 40 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore data, however, tells a different story. After 10,000+ simulations, the Cowboys are actually slight favorites to win. With a 51.2 percent chance of winning, AccuScore would have listed Dallas as -105 money-line favorites. A Vegas underdog who wins the majority of AccuScore simulations is always appealing.
As is usually the case, the Cowboys' chance at winning this game depends largely on how their defense plays. Offensively, they should get solid production.
In his last home matchup against the Saints, Tony Romo threw for 416 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, finishing with a 123.8 passer rating. Heading into Week 4, DeMarco Murray has rushed for 100-plus yards in all three games thus far. AccuScore projects 280 yards, 2 TDs for Romo, and 17 carries for 90 yards and 1 TD for Murray.
The Cowboys offense has to contain an already-struggling Brees. Through three games, he has five TDs – two against a hardly-competitive Minnesota defense – and 2 INTs. Brees is projected to throw for 351 yards, but has a slightly higher probability of throwing an INT than Romo.
AccuScore gives Brees a 38 percent chance of having at least a 2:1 TD to INT ratio. When he does achieve that ratio, the Saints' winning probability goes up to 66 percent. Unfortunately for Saints fans, New Orleans commits fewer turnovers than Dallas in only 33 percent of simulations.
Supporting Trend: The Saints are 1-6 straight up in their last seven games on the road.
Please check other game predictions on AccuScore.