LAS VEGAS – Marshall has yet to make an appearance in the College Football Playoff rankings this season despite being one of three unbeaten college football teams remaining at the FBS level. The Thundering Herd will go for their 11th straight win on Saturday (2:30 p.m. ET) when they host Rice in a key Conference USA matchup. They have gone 7-2-1 against the spread during their 10-game winning streak, with six of the covers coming as a double-digit favorite.
The Line: Marshall -21.5, Total: 64.5
Line movement: Marshall opened as a 19-point road favorite at The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas on Sunday and has since jumped to -21.5. The total opened 64.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and did not move in early betting. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Rice is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings with Marshall....Rice is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a double-digit road underdog....Rice is 7-1 SU in its last eight road games against Conference USA opponents (5-3 ATS)....Marshall is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit home favorite....Marshall is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against Conference USA opponents....The OVER is 6-2 in Rice’s last eight road games against Conference USA opponents....The OVER is 10-2 in Marshall’s last 12 home games against Conference USA opponents.
Weak schedule hurting Marshall: In today’s world of college football with the new four-team playoff debuting this year, who you play and when you play them are arguably more important than whether or not you win all your games. The Thundering Herd is finding that out the hard way, as their biggest victory during their current winning streak took place last year when they beat Maryland 31-20 in the Military Bowl as a 3-point favorite.
It does not seem to matter that Marshall ranks second in the country both in total offense and scoring, averaging 566 yards and 47.8 point per game. Last week at Southern Miss, the Thundering Herd trailed 14-0 in the first quarter before scoring 63 of the next 66 points in a 63-17 rout as a 26.5-point favorite. The Associated Press and Coaches Polls each have Marshall ranked No. 21, but the team’s lack of competition has kept it from the most important poll.
“Well we know Marshall, we know they run up the score,” said Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations. “They actually got behind last week early in the game, but you saw what they can do.”
Even with several lopsided wins this year, Avello said he understands why the Thundering Herd is not getting any love from the College Football Playoff selection committee. He even dropped Marshall from the betting board recently because their odds to win the national title are simply too high compared to other contenders who actually have a shot.
“I took Marshall off, they just have no chance,” Avello said. “In their whole schedule, you can’t even find a Top 50 team. If you can’t beat a Top 50 team, the committee would probably take a four-loss SEC club before they take an undefeated Marshall.”
“And so they really have no shot for the national championship. They might run the table, and they should because they have two home games with Rice and then Western Kentucky, and then they’re at UAB. They’re going to be a solid favorite in all three. This game to me is a lot closer, the more I look at it, I think Rice is a team that can give them a few problems. Probably not win the game, but I’d give them half a shot here. Their schedule’s much tougher than Marshall’s is.”
Rice too big of an underdog? Avello made the opening line on the Thundering Herd smaller than three touchdowns against the Owls because of the past history between the teams. Rice is 3-0-1 against the spread and beat Marshall in last year’s Conference USA Championship Game 41-24 as a 6.5-point underdog, which is the last time they met.
You have to go back to 2007 to find a double-digit win for the Herd in the series, and even that game was decided by less than two touchdowns. Avello said the Owls have a shot for that reason alone.
“I looked back at the Marshall-Rice games over the last three years, one was the title game last year where Marshall beat Rice by 17 as only a 6.5-point favorite,” he said. “But the other games when they play, they’re really close. One game was decided by three, another game was decided by four. Rice has six straight wins, so that’s the reason why I thought maybe this game could be a little bit closer. Rice has a decent defense. I know Marshall can run up the score, but I think this game is within three touchdowns, at least that was my opinion when I made the initial line.”
Weather: The forecast calls for cold temperatures, around 40 degrees, with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | RICE team page | MARSH team page
The Linemakers' lean: We have plenty of respect for Marshall, but Rice warrants some love as well, as the Owls are a stout 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS on their own. And they can certainly play with Marshall, beating the Herd last season and taking them to OT the year before that. This is too many points for Marshall to be laying, especially as the pressure of an undefeated season starts to mount. Rice +21.5 and OVER 64 are the plays.
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