There may not be a sport with a more exciting – or unpredictable – postseason than the NHL. Upsets are common in the hockey playoffs, as hot goalies, fortuitous bounces and other random events can drastically influence low-scoring games. Who can forget the Los Angeles Kings winning the Stanley Cup as a No. 8 seed just two years ago?
On the other hand, favorites can hold serve, too. Last season’s best regular-season team, the Chicago Blackhawks, went on to win the Stanley Cup.
But, according to LVH SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons, the difference between the favorite and underdog in the NHL playoffs is blurred.
"It seems like each year hockey gets more wide open through the playoffs. I mean, there’s really not a lot of difference between 1-8, 2-7," Salmons told The Linemakers on Sporting News this week.
Here's a quick look at the three first-round matchups that begin tonight, including a pick for one of the series.
No. 3 Montreal Canadiens (-105) vs. No. 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (-115)
Season series: Lightning 2-1-1
These teams were as close as could be in the regular season. Besides finishing a point apart in the standings, three of their four games went to overtime with two of those three decided in a shootout. Tampa’s win on April 1 was the only regulation victory of the series.
The big note for this series is Tampa goalie Ben Bishop, who remains questionable with an upper-body injury. Goalies can fluctuate wildly over a short series -- Michael Leighton backstopped a team to the Stanley Cup finals a few years ago -- but Bishop is a better bet for strong play than Anders Lindback.
Ryan Malone is also a major question after being arrested for a DUI and, more seriously, cocaine possession.
No. 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (+190) vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh Penguins (-220)
Season Series: Penguins 5-0
The Penguins owned Columbus in the regular season. As Sporting News’ Sean Gentille points out, the Penguins trailed for less than one minute, in total, during the season series. If you believe in matchups, it certainly looks like the Penguins have the edge here.
But the Penguins were a whole lot better than the New York Islanders last year, and Marc-Andre Fleury’s shaky play led to that becoming a series. This Blue Jackets team is better than that Islanders team.
Still, the Penguins are getting healthy. Paul Martin and Kris Letang are back, and Evgeni Malkin is expected to play in Game 1. For those of you wondering about an insurance policy for Fleury, Tomas Vokoun will return to backup duties for the postseason.
No. 4 Dallas Stars (+160) vs. No. 1 Anaheim Ducks (-180)
Season series: Stars 2-1
The Ducks had the best record in the West. But for those looking at the Stars as a long shot, advanced stats suggest Anaheim is not as strong as its record indicates.
The Stars are live underdog, believes The Linemakers’ Brian Blessing (via DonBest.com), who cites coach Lindy Ruff’s "track record when in the playoffs, as a dog especially. Look for the Stars in Game 1 at a big plus-price to maybe steal home-ice advantage away and make this a pretty compelling series. I think an upset could be brewing."
Read our full story on first-round series prices here, and see Stanley Cup futures odds here.