If you like to bet a boxing match, Saturday night is for you.
How many marquee pugilistic affairs can you recall for which there have been a prohibitive favorite, where you are either laying too big a price, taking a shot on a prayer of an underdog, or searching for a prop just to keep your interest? More than you care to, we’re sure.
Well, this weekend brings us one of the most exciting fighters the game has ever seen looking for revenge as a reasonably-price favorite.
Saturday at MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Manny Pacquiao is listed at about 2-to-1 odds over Timothy Bradley, who beat the Filipino back in June 2012 (albeit by one of the most controversial split decisions in recent memory). Stack those odds against Floyd Mayweather’s 11-to-1 price in his title bout against Marcus Maidana, coming up in less than a month, on May 3.
What fight would you rather bet on?
“The closer the fight is to pick ‘em, the more action you usually draw,” said Vegas veteran Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill. “It’s tough for anyone to bet 11 to win 1. So they have to bet the underdog, which invariably happens, or they have to bet Mayweather in a prop, like Mayweather by decision or Mayweather by a certain round. So it definitely hurts action when the price gets that big.”
Opening odds (William Hill): Pacquiao -200, Bradley +175
Current odds (William Hill): Pacquiao -220, Bradley +190
When a prize fight features a large gap in odds between the favorite and underdog, public bettors are almost always swinging for the fences on the long shot. Saturday’s dynamic is different, and the price on the beloved Pacquiao is reasonable and attractive enough that books will continue to take plenty of action on him before the bell. In other words, his price may go up.
“There’s been good two-way action on this fight,” Bogdanovich said, “(but the price on Pacquiao) might go up a little at the end. I can see Pacquiao closing at like -240 or -250. But it won’t stray too far. It will be anywhere from -200 to -250, I believe , depending on each individual shop and the liability they have on it.”
(Are you taking this as a hint that, if you like Pacquiao to win, not to wait too long to pull the trigger? Yes? Good.)
The biggest bet William Hill has written on this fight as of Thursday?
“No real monster bets,” said Bogdanovich. “I think the biggest bet was $22,000 to win $10,000 on Pacquiao. No six-figure bets.”