AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the basketball season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines and spreads. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply or suggest a high chance of covering the spread, it’s a recommended play.
The Raptors on Friday host a Pacers team that is playing to avoid a seven-game losing streak, which would be their longest in five seasons. With Indiana getting just 54 points per game from their starters (No. 28 in league), expect Friday night to be a lopsided contest.
AccuScore has the Raptors as solid 84.4 percent favorites to win the game outright, which translates into money-line odds of -540. The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 104-92.
While sports books have Toronto priced at -460 -- and the Raptors are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games at home -- laying -540 is not necessarily an attractive proposition.
There is a 54.1 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 198. The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five meetings between these teams.
But our best bet is against the point spread....
AccuScore Best Bet: There is a 54.7 percent chance Toronto covers as 9-point favorites, a 4-star (out of 4) AccuScore hot trend. Toronto is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home against Indiana.
Keep an eye out: What stands out the most in the simulated box score is the four more turnovers Indiana commits than Toronto, as well as the Raptors' advantage on the offensive glass. They average 3-4 more offensive rebounds than do the Pacers.
Projected leaders
David West: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 TOs
Kyle Lowry: 19 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 TOs
Visit AccuScore.com for more NBA picks