LAS VEGAS – The unbeaten Notre Dame Fighting Irish return to action off a bye week by visiting MetLife Stadium on Saturday for a matchup with the Syracuse Orange (8 p.m. ET, ABC). New York’s College Classic marks these schools' first meeting since 2008, when Syracuse stunned Notre Dame 24-23 as a 19.5-point road underdog. The Orange are 3-0 against the spread in the last three meetings.
The Line: Notre Dame -10, Total: 51
Line movement: The consensus line around Las Vegas midweek had Notre Dame as a 12-point favorite, but the number dropped late Wednesday.
“(The sharps) ran us up on Notre Dame Monday from -11 to -12.5, and we got as high as -13 on Tuesday, but then others came stronger on the other side with Syracuse Wednesday afternoon,” South Point sports book director Bert Osborne told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “We moved fast with the number and kept up with the market, but when it was over within a period of hour, we were down to -9. The worst part about it all is that I had just turned in my parlay cards to the printer for the week with Notre Dame set at -12.5.”
The total opened 48 but was adjusted upward. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after a bye week. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Notre Dame’s last five games after a bye week. The UNDER is 6-0 in Notre Dame’s last six games against ACC opponents.
‘Cuse covers in New York: While MetLife Stadium is technically in New Jersey, New York’s College Classic is played at the home of the NFL’s Giants and Jets, which has also become a home away from home for Syracuse. Much like Madison Square Garden used to do when the Orange were members of the old Big East in college basketball, MetLife has provided thousands of Syracuse alumni the opportunity to watch them play and given the team a bit of a home-field advantage.
Despite losing the previous two games played there, the Orange have covered the spread both times and kept their fans engaged throughout. Last year, Syracuse lost its season opener to Penn State, 23-17, at MetLife as an 8-point underdog. In 2012, USC beat the Orange, 42-29, as a 24.5-point favorite, falling short of covering the spread. The Trojans led just 21-16 late in the third quarter before erupting for three touchdowns in the fourth.
Syracuse has also gone 2-0 SU and ATS in two appearances in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Notre Dame lost its only previous appearance at MetLife, 35-17 as a 6.5-point favorite to Navy in 2010, and beat Rutgers 29-16 in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl, failing to cover as 14.5-point chalk.
Golson resumes Heisman campaign: Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson will get his chance to win over east coast voters for the Heisman Trophy in this nationally-televised game and hopes to pick up where he left off before the bye. Golson has led the Fighting Irish to a 15-1 SU record and 9-7 ATS mark in last 16 games, with the lone loss coming in the 2013 BCS Championship Game to Alabama.
Heisman odds: Golson 14-to-1 on our board
The senior from Myrtle Beach, who missed last season due to academic suspension, is well ahead of his pace from 2012, when he passed for 12 touchdowns and ran for six more. This year, Golson has seven passing touchdowns and four rushing scores in just three games.
“Everett's a great football player,” Syracuse head coach Scott Shafer said. “We knew that he had a year off last year and now all of a sudden, he's back. He accounts for over 62 percent of their offense when you look at both pass and run, so he's the guy. He's the guy that we have to do a great job defending (against).”
Meanwhile, the Orange are led by senior quarterback Terrel Hunt, who had a career-high 156 rushing yards last week in a 34-20 home loss to Maryland, becoming the first Syracuse signal caller since Donovan McNabb to eclipse the century mark on the ground. Hunt is averaging 91 rushing yards per game, ranking fifth among quarterbacks nationally.
Weather: The forecast calls for cool temperatures, around 70 degrees, with clear skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping help: Notre Dame-Syracuse matchup analysis | Power Ratings | ND team page | SYR team page
The Linemakers' lean: Kenny White and Micah Roberts both believe this will be a low-scoring game with two decent defenses matching up. Micah also likes Syracuse in this spot, because the line looks like the game is at South Bend rather than New Jersey. Our ratings indicate Notre Dame should be favored by only 5 points at a neutral-site against the Orange. Look for Terrel Hunt to give Notre Dame some trouble and keep this a close. The plays are Syracuse and the UNDER.*
* The play on Syracuse was recommended when the line was +12; it's obviously lost some value at +10.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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