LAS VEGAS – Florida State puts its 22-game winning streak on the line when it hosts Notre Dame on Saturday in a matchup of top-five teams (8 p.m. ET, ABC). The defending national champion Seminoles have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games and face a Fighting Irish team that has lost only one game in two seasons with quarterback Everett Golson under center.
The Line: Florida State -10 , Total: 57.5
Line movement: Florida State opened as a 12.5-point home favorite at The Wynn sports book on Sunday, before the game was taken down at most shops pending the status of quarterback Jameis Winston. The Wynn put the game back on the board Thursday night, dropping the line to -10. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook hung that same number on Friday. CG Technology opened the Seminoles as 12-point favorites, moving them as low as -8, before settling at -8.5 early Thursday. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page .
Trends that matter: Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS in its last three road games against ACC opponents. Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as underdogs. Notre Dame is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog. Florida State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Notre Dame’s last five road games against ACC opponents. The UNDER is 6-3 in Florida State’s last nine games.
Winston worth more than a TD: For the second week in a row, Johnny Avello has been one of the few oddsmakers to leave a college football game on the board when others took it down. Avello, Th e Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, did drop Florida State 2 points on Thursday to -10 amidst continued media reports that Seminoles quarterback Winston signed memorabilia. But it has yet to be confirmed Winston received payment for the autographs, and he's expected to play. Last week, Avello left the Georgia-Missouri game up despite the suspension of Bulldogs running back Todd Gurley.
"I think he's playing, and my 10 up there is based on him going," Avello said of Winston. "I don't think they found anything. Maybe he did sign a bunch of autographs, but I'm not sure they can prove that he got any money for it. And I don't think they're going to be able to prove that by tomorrow. Next week they're off, and there's a lot of time in between for them to figure it out.
"Now if I'm wrong, if I find out he's not going to go, I'm probably going to drop this line to somewhere around 7. ... It's a big drop-off between him and the next guy. We saw the other kid play, and he just didn't look too good. This isn't a great spot for you to have your backup. This is a big game for both teams. If they lose this game, they're probably going to drop like a ton of bricks, based on not only losing the game but just perception in general about everything that's going on around the program."
The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White said Winston is worth “at least 8 points” to the betting line, which explains why books have been so hesitant to put the game back on their boards. Back in Week 4 when Winston was suspended for the Clemson game, the Seminoles opened as 20.5-point favorites at The Wynn and closed at -10.5 .
Winston was originally suspended for the first half against the Tigers but later ruled out for the entire game after shouting obscenities on campus, giving sophomore backup Sean Maguire the opportunity to make his first career start. Maguire got off to a rough start but ended up with 304 passing yards and a key 74-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Rashad Greene that tied the game at 17-17. Florida State went on to beat Clemson 23-17 in overtime.
Golson could emerge as Heisman favorite: As Brian Edwards noted earlier this week , Notre Dame quarterback Golson’s Heisman campaign is directly linked to one game and one game only – this week’s road matchup at Florida State. Golson may be the “other signal caller” with Winston garnering headlines for the wrong reasons recently. But Golson also had issues in 2013 with a year-long academic suspension, and he and Winston have been the two most successful quarterbacks over the last three seasons with a combined mark of 36-1 SU and 23-14 ATS in 37 games. Golson’s odds to win the Heisman this year are 5-to-1, according to Edwards.
Weather: The forecast calls for warm temperatures, around 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping help: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | ND team page | FSU team page
The Linemakers' lean: FSU may be just 1-5 ATS on the season, but this the shortest number they're being asked to lay with Winston on the field. Our power ratings give the Seminoles a 10-point edge on a neutral field, so factor in home-field advantage, and this price looks fairly cheap. Florida State will be playing with a chip on its shoulder, and this is Notre Dame's first true road game of the season. Florida State covers in a high-scoring game. FSU -10 and OVER are the plays.
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3:44 PM 10/17/2014