AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here are two money-line picks for the NFL’s Week 3 card:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-1), Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network
Las Vegas expects Thursday night's matchup to be quite the uphill battle for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is listed as a +240 underdog at multiple sports books, odds that suggest a 29.4 percent chance of winning the game. AccuScore simulations indicate the Bucs have a higher probability to get their first win of the season.
Tampa Bay came out on top in 41 percent of the 10,000+ simulations; AccuScore would have listed Tampa Bay as about +145 underdogs.
Despite the 0-2 Bucs struggling to get out of the NFC South basement for the fourth straight season, both games this season ended with Tampa Bay down one score. Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin missed last week’s matchup with a knee injury; he practiced Tuesday and was included in AccuScore’s simulations. He is projected to total 51 yards on 15 carries this week.
If you’re hesitant to risk a wager on a banged-up defense playing on the road, take solace in the fact that AccuScore data projects the Buccaneers to commit fewer turnovers than the Falcons.
Green Bay Packers (1-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-1), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Vegas odds imply Sunday’s NFC North clash at Ford Field should be one of the best games of Week 3. Green Bay is listed as a +115 underdog across town, indicating a 46.5 percent chance of winning the game. AccuScore simulations support a bet on the underdog.
Green Bay is actually the slight favorite after 10,000+ simulations, having a 52 percent chance of winning Sunday’s matchup. If the odds were based on the sims, GB would actually be -110 favorites.
While we can expect Detroit to have a bounce back game after reaching the end zone just once in last week’s 24-7 loss to Carolina, this week’s matchup will come down to the production of Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is 9-1 in his 10 starts against the Lions, averaging a passer rating of 111.0 with a TD:INT ratio of 19:5. Rodgers won the QB battle against Detroit’s Matthew Stafford in AccuScore simulations by averaging more yards (317.3 vs 302), more TDs (1.7 vs 1.6), fewer INTs (0.6 vs 0.9) and a higher passer rating (100.3 vs 89.6).
Supporting trend: The Lions are 1-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
Please check other game predictions on AccuScore.