AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for a potential upset for the NFL's Week 7 card:
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The last time the Chiefs won on the road against the Chargers was 2007. Since QB Damon Huard led them to that victory, Kansas City has gone 0-6 in San Diego. The Wynn Las Vegas has Kansas City as +190 underdogs on the money line, implying about a 34 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore data – while it doesn’t pick a different winner than Vegas – does project the Chiefs to be much more of a road warrior than does Vegas. As opposed to the 34 percent chance Vegas odds give K.C., AccuScore simulations indicate a better-than 47 percent chance of winning. AccuScore would have listed the Chiefs at about +110 underdogs, which of course, makes K.C. at +190 a fine play.
The Chiefs covering a 4-point spread is a three-star (out of four) hot trend this week. Makes sense when you consider the fact they are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games on the road.
Neither Vegas nor AccuScore expect Kansas City to win, but the discrepancy between the two probabilities makes the +190 very appealing.
For Kansas City, the variable in simulations with the most impact is running back Jamaal Charles. After 10,000 simulations, Charles averages 78 rushing yards per simulated game. If he can have a performance with better than average rushing yards and at least one rushing touchdown – of which there’s a 28 percent chance – the Chiefs' winning probability goes from 47 percent to 63 percent.
After 10,000-plus simulations, the average score is 24.6 - 23.9, in favor of San Diego. With an average simulated score this close, turnovers become extra crucial. According to simulations, Chargers QB Philip Rivers has a slightly higher probability to throw one interception than does Chiefs QB Alex Smith. The Chiefs commit fewer turnovers in 47 percent of simulations, winning 59 percent of games in which they take care of the ball better than San Diego does.
Supporting Trend: Andy Reid’s teams are 13-2 coming off a bye week.
Please check other game predictions on AccuScore.