LAS VEGAS -- NFL bettors who also play fantasy football often get too caught up in how much they think a player is worth to the betting line. Depth is the bigger issue for teams, especially at critical skill positions like running back. For example, even though the Arizona Cardinals are on a bye week, The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White said there is no drop-off between starting quarterback Carson Palmer and backup Drew Stanton, so there is little to no line adjustment (quantitative analyst Rufus Peabody disagrees).
So what about players out this week or returning to action? Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable for Sunday’s game at the Minnesota Vikings after missing last week’s 56-14 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As you can tell by the score, the Falcons did not even need him. The Linemakers on Sporting News' Kenny White, one of the most respected oddsmakers in Las Vegas, rates Chicago Bears WR Brandon Marshall as a slightly better player than Roddy White, just for comparison’s sake.
“I have Marshall a 1/2 point better,” White said. “That’s six cents per game (on the money-line) and one victory over 16 games.”
The Vikings will give rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater his first career start against the Falcons after Matt Cassel broke his foot in a loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. Bridgewater completed 12-of-20 passes for 150 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in relief of Cassel but was sacked twice for a loss of 15 yards. White said the drop-off between Cassel and Bridgewater is just 1 point. Bettors tends to agree, as the line has not budged much from the opener of Atlanta -2.5, with the Falcons currently -3 at most sports books in Las Vegas.
Of course, not all backup QBs are created equal, and there’s a big difference between a first-round draft pick and a journeyman like Charlie Whitehurst of the Tennessee Titans. Whitehurst looks like he will get the call to replace Tennessee starting QB Jake Locker, who is dealing with a wrist injury. According to White, the drop-off from Locker to Whitehurst is 2.5 points. The market has already moved on the Titans’ Week 4 opponent – the Indianapolis Colts – moving the line in their favor from the opener of -6.5 up to as high as -8 so far at the SuperBook.
Running back depth tested
Five NFL teams have recently had to replace starters at the running back position, including the Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Of that group, the Chargers might be most impacted, losing both Ryan Mathews (knee) and Danny Woodhead (ankle), with Donald Brown taking over on a full-time basis and rookie Branden Oliver set to see an increased role.
“I always say running backs and wide receivers are a dime a dozen,” White said. “If the quarterback has time to throw, he will find any receiver. Look at (New England Patriots QB Tom) Brady last year. A running back will be good if the line opens holes.
“Branden Oliver should be a sleeper pickup for fantasy football. He will get more carries this week keeping Donald Brown fresh.”
The Chargers have seen virtually no change in their line as the biggest favorites on the Week 4 betting board (-13 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars), backing up White’s point. Then again, some running backs are more simply important to a team’s offense than others, especially when there is virtually no depth behind them.
White said the drop from Texans RB Arian Foster to rookie Alfred Blue is 1 point compared to a half-point between Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles and backup Knile Davis, who rushed for 132 yards on 32 carries and scored one touchdown last week in a 34-15 road win over the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites hosting the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football and remain there, while the Texans were as high as 4-point favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills but are down to -3.
The Buccaneers are expected to get RB Doug Martin back from a knee injury for their road matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and while White said he is worth a half-point compared to backup Bobby Rainey, the loss of QB Josh McCown (thumb) drops the team 1.5 points. Second-year QB Mike Glennon will make his first start of the season at Pittsburgh after Tampa Bay went 4-9 with him under center last year. The Steelers are consensus 7.5-point favorites in Vegas.
Finally, the Panthers also took a big hit last Sunday night in a 37-19 home loss to Pittsburgh, losing RBs Mike Tolbert (leg) and Jonathan Stewart (knee). However, they will be getting their Week 1 starter back from a thigh injury when they visit the Baltimore Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs.
“I like DeAngelo Williams, the best of the Panthers backs, and he should be back this week,” White said. “Losing Tolbert is big, as he can be a very effective fullback as well.”
What about offensive linemen?
The Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe for an extended period of time following knee surgery and are replacing him with undrafted rookie James Hurst. Baltimore has already had trouble running the ball without RB Ray Rice in the fold, and now the team needs to worry about defending the blind side of QB Joe Flacco.
“The age-old question has been which position on the field is the most important other than the QB,” White said. “Some say the center is more important than left tackle. I rate them all the same.”
The Ravens also lost starting tight end Dennis Pitta to a dislocated hip for the second year in a row last week in a 23-21 road victory against the Cleveland Browns but have a capable backup in Owen Daniels. The team could get a boost with the return of RB Bernard Pierce from a thigh injury, as veteran Justin Forsett and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro filled in at Cleveland.
Check out all the latest injury information here.
More handicapping tools: Live odds | Power ratings | Week 4 matchups
Sign up for The Linemakers’ free newsletter and follow us on Twitter.