The Warriors defeated the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals 108-100 in overtime, covering a 6-point spread at home. The total score of 208 resulted in OVER, but the 98-98 tally at the end of regulation would have kept it well UNDER the total of 204.
With Kyrie Irving out for the remainder of the playoffs, the point spread and total have been adjusted for Game 2 (8 p.m. ET, ABC). About seven hours before tipoff, Golden State is a 7.5- to 8-point favorite, and the total is around 200.5. Check The Linemakers on Sporting News’ odds page for current Las Vegas lines.
After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives the Warriors a 75.6 percent chance to win the game outright. That’s pretty much in line with the money-line on Golden State. Multiple Vegas books are dealing GS -360, odds that imply a 78.3 percent chance of winning.
The average score after AccuScore ran its 10,000-plus simulations is 102 - 94.
Golden State has about five times the chance at a big win (10 points or more) than does Cleveland. The close win percentages are more comparable. The Warriors have about an 11 percent chance at a close win (4 points or less), compared to the Cavaliers' probability at 8.3 percent.
AccuScore Best Bet: There's a 57 percent chance the total stays UNDER 200.5. With Irving out for Cleveland, the offensive burden falls on the shoulders of LeBron James.
Supporting trends: The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Cavaliers' last five games on the road….The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the Warriors' last 13 games.
ATS Trends: Golden State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
Check out AccuScore.com for today's ATS pick.
Projected Leaders
LeBron James: 35 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 7 TOs
Stephen Curry: 26 points (4-9 3PM), 11 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 steals, 4 TOs
More picks: The Linemakers offer side, total | Props