Oddsmakers use statistical models to generate everything from the line on a game to futures odds. Similarly, and moreso in baseball than any other sport, there are publicly available models published all over the Internet.
Today, we'll examine betting win totals and how they compare to several of the most reputable projections. Of course, oddsmakers have more to consider (and more money to lose) when releasing their numbers — that's why we tend to side with them. Their odds are made with more context and with the bettor in mind.
MORE: World Series odds update | MLB live odds page
We took season win totals from two different books — the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and BetOnline.ag — averaged them together and then compared them to averaged projections from Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Here's where the biggest differences lie:
WG is Westgate, BO is BetOnline, FG is FanGraphs and BP is Baseball Prospectus.
| Team | WG | BO | FG | BP | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A's | 76 | 76 | 80 | 76 | -2 |
| Angels | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81 | 77 | 1 |
| Astros | 87.5 | 88 | 87 | 87 | 0.75 |
| Blue Jays | 87 | 86.5 | 84 | 86 | 1.75 |
| Braves | 66.5 | 67.5 | 68 | 69 | -1.5 |
| Brewers | 69.5 | 70.5 | 71 | 78 | -4.5 |
| Cardinals | 86 | 86.5 | 85 | 81 | 3.25 |
| Cubs | 93.5 | 93.5 | 95 | 94 | -1 |
| DBacks | 82.5 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 3.25 |
| Dodgers | 90 | 90.5 | 92 | 94 | -2.75 |
| Giants | 88.5 | 88.5 | 88 | 85 | 2 |
| Indians | 87 | 85.5 | 86 | 91 | -2.25 |
| Mariners | 82.5 | 83 | 81 | 84 | 0.25 |
| Marlins | 80 | 79.5 | 80 | 76 | 1.75 |
| Mets | 90.5 | 89.5 | 89 | 90 | 0.5 |
| Nationals | 89.5 | 88.5 | 88 | 87 | 1.5 |
| Orioles | 78 | 78.5 | 80 | 74 | 1.25 |
| Padres | 72 | 73.5 | 74 | 76 | -2.25 |
| Phillies | 67 | 65.5 | 64 | 66 | 1.25 |
| Pirates | 85.5 | 85.5 | 83 | 80 | 4 |
| Rangers | 82.5 | 83.5 | 80 | 79 | 3.5 |
| Rays | 82 | 82 | 81 | 87 | -2 |
| Red Sox | 87 | 87.5 | 88 | 87 | -0.25 |
| Reds | 68.5 | 69.5 | 73 | 73 | -4 |
| Rockies | 70.5 | 71.5 | 74 | 74 | -3 |
| Royals | 84.5 | 84.5 | 77 | 75 | 8.5 |
| Tigers | 82.5 | 81.5 | 80 | 79 | 2.5 |
| Twins | 80 | 79.5 | 77 | 79 | 1.75 |
| White Sox | 82 | 81.5 | 80 | 84 | -0.25 |
| Yankees | 85 | 85.5 | 82 | 84 | 2.25 |
As for the World Series, the probabilities differ because a book has to take juice — that's called a theoretical hold. Here's how to calculate it to make sure the book isn't shorting you on futures odds.
| Team | WG | IP | FG |
|---|---|---|---|
| A's | 100-1 | 0.99% | 1.30% |
| Angels | 40-1 | 2.44% | 2.00% |
| Astros | 10-1 | 9.09% | 9.40% |
| Blue Jays | 14-1 | 6.67% | 3.20% |
| Braves | 500-1 | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| Brewers | 300-1 | 0.33% | 0.00% |
| Cardinals | 20-1 | 4.76% | 2.30% |
| Cubs | 9-2 | 18.18% | 18.20% |
| DBacks | 25-1 | 3.85% | 0.50% |
| Dodgers | 10-1 | 9.09% | 12.00% |
| Giants | 10-1 | 9.09% | 4.80% |
| Indians | 16-1 | 5.88% | 8.70% |
| Mariners | 30-1 | 3.23% | 2.00% |
| Marlins | 60-1 | 1.64% | 0.40% |
| Mets | 10-1 | 9.09% | 7.40% |
| Nationals | 14-1 | 6.67% | 6.50% |
| Orioles | 40-1 | 2.44% | 0.60% |
| Padres | 300-1 | 0.33% | 0.00% |
| Phillies | 500-1 | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| Pirates | 20-1 | 4.76% | 1.00% |
| Rangers | 18-1 | 5.26% | 1.30% |
| Rays | 50-1 | 1.96% | 1.40% |
| Red Sox | 12-1 | 7.69% | 10.20% |
| Reds | 300-1 | 0.33% | 0.00% |
| Rockies | 300-1 | 0.33% | 0.00% |
| Royals | 16-1 | 5.88% | 0.60% |
| Tigers | 25-1 | 3.85% | 1.80% |
| Twins | 60-1 | 1.64% | 0.70% |
| White Sox | 35-1 | 2.78% | 1.40% |
| Yankees | 16-1 | 5.88% | 2.10% |
| 134.54% |
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