MLB picks of the day – Three selections from AccuScore

Tomi Rantanen for AccuScore

MLB picks of the day – Three selections from AccuScore image

AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer.  Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself.

Check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current baseball lines from Las Vegas.

Kansas City Royals -116 (@ Texas Rangers), 2:05 p.m. ET
Ross Detwiler vs Jeremy Guthrie

The Royals and Rangers have exchanged victories, with Texas taking the first and third games of this series. The pitching department provides a big edge for the Royals today, with Guthrie starting and Detwiler struggling all season long. The Rangers are 1-5 when Detwiler starts, and we don’t see that trend changing here.

The game could be decided early on by K.C.’s heavy hitters, and AccuScore simulations give the Royals 60.4 percent probability to win. The odds are moving a bit toward the Rangers, which bodes well with us since the more accurate line for the Royals win would be at -152.

New York Yankees -119 (@ Tampa Bay Rays), 7:10 p.m. ET
Erasmo Ramirez vs Chase Whitley

The Rays have made their case by beating the Yankees two games in a row, thanks to great pitching and decent enough batting. This time around we believe the Yankees will get their revenge.

Neither pitcher is predicted to have a great game, and we have the Yankees blasting away at a better rate. The simulations put Yankees ahead at 60.8 percent, which indicates odds of -155, so there’s great value laying -119.

The Yankees are 11-5 vs. an opponent with a winning record, 4-1 as road favorites and 6-3 vs the Rays

St. Louis Cardinals -110 (@ Cleveland Indians), 12:10 p.m. ET
Trevor Bauer vs Michael Wacha

The visiting team pitching change to Wacha provides the Cardinals enough of an edge to get their second win of the series at Cleveland.  St. Louis is a better batting team, and Bauer is not predicted to be able to keep the Cards’ hitters at check.

Our prediction differs greatly from that of the oddsmakers, who have Cardinals at -110. AccuScore simulations predict the visitors to win at 60.2 percent, or odds of -151. Great value for better team and the way better starter on the mound.

The Cardinals are 6-0 with Wacha starting and 8-4 vs. an opponent with a losing record.

AccuScore’s season-to-date record on Linemakers: 28-30 (-1.55 units)

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Tomi Rantanen for AccuScore