AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer. Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself.
Check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current baseball lines from Las Vegas.Seattle Mariners +112 (@ Boston Red Sox)
San Francisco Giants +150 (at Pittsburgh Pirates)
Gerrit Cole (14-7, 2.61 ERA) vs Mike Leake (0-1, 2.84)
The Pirates have upper hand here, but the value is with the visiting Giants. Bucs starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has been solid all season and boasts an excellent ERA as well as other stats, while Giants send Mike Leake to the mound right after his return from the DL. It’s not the starters, however, who will decide the game, as this figures to be a close contest with two top teams in the NL. The reigning champions are 1.5 games back of the NL West-leading Dodgers, and four games behind the Cubs for the second wild-card spot.
The Pirates have their problems on defense, and that’s something the Giants should be able to exploit. With the odds heavily leaning toward the home team, there’s good value in the visiting underdogs. It’s not like they’re Phillies, after all.
In AccuScore simulations the Pirates are 51.1 percent favorites, but the odds imply a 60.8 percent chance. We'll take the underdog Giants here, with 48.9 percent chance to win and excellent value in odds, which we would set at around +105. There’s great potential for an upset.
Arizona Diamondbacks +111 (@ Cincinnati Reds)
Anthony DeSclafani (7-8, 3.78 ERA) vs Randall Delgado (4-3, 2.70 ERA)
The Diamondbacks are going for third straight win over the Reds, and when it comes to the Reds, we have to look for the value the other way. Looking back at the two previous games, the home team has been lackluster. It might be they will find their game today, but it’s highly unlikely when the Diamondbacks are playing with such swagger. The Diamondbacks' big bats should be able to score loads against the Reds' mediocre defense and bullpen.
In AccuScore simulations the Diamondbacks are 54.5 percent favorites, while the oddsmakers have set their sights exactly the opposite and have the Reds as favorites. The odds of +111 present good value, and we’d set the line at -120 for the visitors.
Supporting trends: The Diamondbacks are 39-27 (season) and 13-6 (past 30 days) vs. an opponent with a losing record.
AccuScore's season-to-date record for LM: 58-73 (-17.24 units)
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