AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer. Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself.
Check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current baseball lines from Las Vegas.
Texas Rangers +105 (@ Seattle Mariners)
Hisashi Iwakuma (2-2, 4.47 ERA) vs Cole Hamels (in TEX: 0-0, 5.87 ERA; in PHI: 6-7, 3.64 ERA)
The Rangers are still in contest for playoff spot and have improved after the trade deadline. They stand only three wins behind the Angels in the hunt for the wild-card. The Rangers have had problems at home, but boast the best road record in the AL at 31-24. Seattle is very much done for the season and what little motivation it has seems to be dwindling as the season nears its final third. In their last home stand, the Mariners dropped all three games to the Diamondbacks, and it doesn’t look too promising vs the Rangers.
Cole Hamels has something to prove to his new team, while the bullpen is still searching for its better form. However, Mariners batters are not exactly a threat and should be handled comfortably by Rangers pitchers. The batting department gives an even bigger edge to Rangers, so there’s great value in the visiting team making a final push for playoffs. In AccuScore simulations, the visitors get 54.6 percent probability to win, while the oddsmakers have the Mariners as favorites. Great value on the underdog.
Detroit Tigers -120 (vs Boston Red Sox)
Daniel Norris (in DET: 1-0, 1.23 ERA; in TOR: 1-1, 3.86 ERA) vs Joe Kelly (3-6, 6.11 ERA)
Boston is in all kinds of trouble and has been all season. One of the biggest disappointments so far, their pitching has been a mess, allowing the third most runs in the league. While the offense has not been terrible, it simply has not been able to score enough to make up for the slack. That’s something Detroit is looking to exploit, and the Tigers will go for the jugular with their fifth most runs scored. Daniel Norris starting is still a bit of a question mark, but all signs indicate he’ll handle the Red Sox with ease.
In every aspect the Tigers are currently better and are correctly considered favorites. However, in AccuScore simulations the Tigers are even bigger favorites than the odds suggest, winning 61.7 percent of sims. This would indicate odds of -161, so the offer of -120 has great value.
Pittsburgh Pirates +130 (vs Los Angeles Dodgers)
Gerrit Cole (14-5, 2.29 ERA) vs Clayton Kershaw (9-6, 2.37 ERA)
Two teams on top of the NL face each other at Pittsburgh in a game that’s expected to be a low-scoring pitching battle. Both teams boast 62 wins so far. The starting pitchers are both top notch, and the teams are in top-five in ERA. Statistically, Dodgers have a tad better batters, but in close games with great pitching, the difference is diminished.
That said, the oddsmakers consider the Dodgers heavy road favorites at -132. In AccuScore simulations, the score remains low but the Pirates are not considered heavy underdogs. The simulations gives a 50-50 chance for both teams, so current odds for the home team present great value for those willing to take a chance with home underdog.
More picks: The Linemakers call Dodgers-Pirates and more
AccuScore's season-to-date record for LM: 55-68 (-15.28 units)
Visit AccuScore for more picks.