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Miami Marlins +107 (vs St. Louis Cardinals)
Dan Haren vs Lance Lynn
The Cardinals are undoubtedly a better quality team here, but having won the first two games of this series, their bellies might be full. The Marlins are desperate for a win and will do their utmost to avoid getting swept in front of their home crowd.
Miami has all the ingredients of a quality team, but has yet to fulfill its potential. Tonight's opportunity is good with experienced and solid Dan Haren starting for the Marlins and batters itching to get their bounce back after being held to one run last night. The Cardinals are starting Lance Lynn, who is as good a starter as any and will likely be able to keep the game close on his own accord.
The Marlins win 55.1 percent of the games simulated by AccuScore, a remarkably bigger percentage than the odds suggest. The correct line on Miami is -122, so the +107 is appealing.
We are going for a bit of a surprise here with good odds and a team playing with a chip on its shoulder after taking a beating already twice.
AccuScore’s season-to-date record on LM: 49-53 (-4.42 units)
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