California Chrome, at morning-line odds of 5-to-2, is a worthy favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. The chestnut colt has won his last six races, all in dominating fashion, including the Grade 1 San Anita Derby on April 5, his most-recent effort.
The Art Sherman trainee boasts over $1 million in earnings, the only horse in the field that has topped that figure, and the 107 and 108 Beyer Speed Figures he’s posted in his last two outings haven’t been touched by anyone in this group of 20 three-year-olds.
At first glance, California Chrome is modestly bred – his sire, Lucky Pulpit, commanded a stud fee of just $2,500. But a closer look at his lineage reveals Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. Ten of the last 12 Derby winners have come from the Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector bloodline.
But Chrome is not without his knocks. No California bred has worn the roses since Decidedly in 1962. He’s also never raced outside his home state, so it’s fair to wonder how he’ll adapt to the new and hectic environs on Derby Day. The No. 5 post from which he’ll break is far from ideal. Jockey Victor Espinoza, who won the 2002 Derby aboard War Emblem, we’re sure would prefer a more outside post, as navigating through some of the cheap speed won’t be easy.
California Chrome represents the biggest futures risk for John Avello at the Wynn, who was offering the horse at 300-to-1 last September to win the Derby. “It’s not a loss that I can’t live with, but that’s the horse that has grabbed the most money over the course of the season since I put it up in September,” Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News this week. “There’s been some ‘now’ horses here and there, but that’s the horse that has grabbed the most attention.”
OTHERS IN THE MIX
After the scratch of Hoppertunity, only one horse remains with odds shorter than 10-to-1. Wicked Strong, at an adjusted morning-line price of 6-to-1, was impressive at the Wood Memorial, posting a 104 Beyer en route to a 3 ½-length victory. The No. 20 post will be tough – but certainly not impossible – to overcome.
Danza, the 10-to-1 third choice, also won a Grade 1 his last time out with a 100-plus Beyer. He took the Arkansas Derby by 4 ¾ lengths with a 102 speed figure.
The common denominator between Danza and Wicked Strong, The Linemakers’ Brian Blessing points out, is that they both fired in their first race after leaving the speed-biased Gulfstream Park.
“The horse that fits the profile if the change of venue leads to a massive wake-up call is General a Rod,” says Blessing.
The Linemakers’ Vinnie Magliulo says of Samraat, ‘I’ve been high on this horse ever since the future book came out. … I’m not going to get off the bandwagon (now).”
Adds Blessing, “I’m looking at Medal Count as my key to crash the exacta and triple. He was rallying in the Blue Grass, and I think he’ll relish the extra distance. I love the connections – Mike Maker, and Robby Albarado knows this race track really well.”
DERBY PICKS FROM OUR PANEL
Brian Blessing, The Linemakers. Recommends exacta and trifecta boxes using No. 5 California Chrome, No. 8 General a Rod, No. 13 Chitu and No. 14 Medal Count.
Vinnie Magliulo, The Linemakers. Same strategy – exacta and triple boxes with No. 1 Vicar’s in Trouble, No. 5 California Chrome, No. 6 Samraat, No. 8 General a Rod.
Mike Wilkening, writer for The Linemakers on Sporting News. Predicted order of finish: No. 12 Dance With Fate, No. 14 Medal Count, No. 5 California Chrome, No. 7 We Miss Artie.
Brad Telias, veteran horse racing writer: No. 16 Intense Holiday – Steadily improving and should like the extra distance. Todd Pletcher puts go-to guy, Johnny Velazquez in the saddle. No. 15 Tapiture – Figures to be a factor in the exotics as the colt always puts in a solid effort with six out of seven starts in the money. No. 6 Samraat – the New York-bred won five straight before being beaten in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he had to alter course before losing ground to eventual winner, Wicked Strong. No. 5 California Chrome – has dropped jaws on the West Coast but could get knocked around coming out of the gate. We've seen speedballs come into Churchill Downs and stop badly moving into the turn for home when the real running begins.
John Avello, Wynn race and sports book: Intense Holiday
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