Hugh Citron is the first oddsmaker to post lines on MMA fights in Las Vegas. He contributes to The Linemakers on Sporting News for key UFC events.
UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday night from Las Vegas with former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks facing No. 8 contender Stephen Thompson.
Hendricks, now the second-ranked welterweight, is a -220 favorite with Thompson getting +180 as the underdog. Hendricks lost his title in a controversial split decision to current champion Robbie Lawler back in December of 2014, the same fighter he defeated in March of that year to win the title. He looks ready to get back into title contention with an impressive performance Saturday night.
Last March, Hendricks defeated always tough Matt Brown by unanimous decision, which shows he should be coming into the fight full of confidence. Hendricks also back in November of 2013 should have won the welterweight title only to be denied by very suspect judging in a title fight with than champion Georges St-Pierre.
Stephen Thompson has won five straight but clearly not against the competition he will face in Hendricks. Thompson (11-1) has only one loss, to Matt Brown in April of 2012. His last win over Jake Ellenberger last July would probably be the biggest name he’s defeated.
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Pick: Usually I like to lean towards the dog in most fights as lines are usually inflated on the favorite side, especially when the favorite is a big name. This seems like a very reasonable price at -220 to play Hendricks, who has clearly faced the tougher competition and is used to the big stage of a main event. Look for Hendricks to press the action and as the fight goes on probably wear down Thompson in the later rounds. Taking Johny Hendricks as a -220 favorite to get the win in the main event Saturday night.
Also on the main card a heavyweight fight featuring always popular Roy “Big Country” Nelson and Jared Rosholt. Nelson, 39, has a record of 21-12 and is a -160 favorite with the 10 year younger Rosholt getting +130 as the underdog.
Nelson has lost five of his last six fights and looked particularly slow in his last fight, a loss in September to Josh Barnett. Rosholt, who may be coming into his best fighting years, has won straight — the last a unanimous decision over Stefan Struve in November of 2015. I think the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite here and if Rosholt can avoid Roy’s big overhand right and stay upright the whole fight, a decision win could be in the cards.
Pick: Look for the younger Rosholt to take this fight into the later rounds and wear out the always slow Nelson, who may be coming to the end of his career. We'll take Jared Rosholt to pull a minor upset at +130 over Roy Nelson in what should be an entertaining fight for as long as it lasts.
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