With the college basketball season behind us, we turn our wagering attention to the NBA, whose regular season ends in eight days and playoffs begin on Saturday, April 19. After a one-day hiatus as UConn beat Kentucky for the NCAA title on Monday, pro basketball is back in session with a six-game card on Tuesday. It's replete with playoff implications, as well as the Lakers trying to avoid a franchise record for futility.
In the first game of tonight's nationally-televised doubleheader, the Heat host the Nets and look for their first win against them this season (8 p.m. ET, TNT). Brooklyn has won and covered all three of the season’s previous meetings, the last of which by a 96-95 count as 9-point underdogs in Miami on March 12.
Line: Miami -7, Total: 190
After an inauspicious start to the season, Brooklyn has found its groove at the right time. The Nets have won nine of their last 12 games, 12 of their last 16, and 16 of their last 21. They’re two losses behind Chicago for fourth place in the East, a spot that means home-court advantage in the likely first-round matchup between those two clubs.
The total has also been something to watch with the Nets. They’ve picked up the pace offensively, which naturally resulted in plenty of OVERs – but that was before recent adjustments by the bookmakers. Three of Brooklyn’s last four games have stayed UNDER, but that followed a run of seven-straight OVERs.
The Nets seem to thrive when the pace is fast -- they’re 33-7 SU when scoring at least 100 points, and 9-27 when they don’t.
As should be expected at this time of year from the two-time defending champs, Miami’s D has been clamping down. They’ve allowed just 86.6 per game during their last eight games.
On the season, Brooklyn is 39-35-2 O/U, Miami is 41-35.
The Heat recently overtook the reeling Pacers for the No. 1 seed in the East, whether or not that means all that much to Miami. They’ve won and covered five of their last six games, all without Dwyane Wade, who is dealing with a hamstring issue. Wade’s status for Tuesday is unclear.
With Brooklyn playing again tomorrow night, the Nets are expected to rest Kevin Garnett (back spasms) for the Miami game.
Brooklyn forward Paul Pierce is averaging a career-low 13.5 points this season, but against the Heat, he's scored 23.7 per game.
The Linemakers’ lean: LeBron James will have his ears pinned back, as the Nets remain the only team in the league Miami has not beaten at least once this season. But we’re giving some weight to those three wins by Brooklyn, as well as the Nets’ recent winning ways, and the points here are just too many to pass up. Nets +7 is the play.
In terms of the total, we're surprised the number came in so low, and we're seeing solid value on the OVER.
Information from STATS/Associated Press was used in this report.