LAS VEGAS – When Georgia running back Todd Gurley was suspended indefinitely on Thursday for an alleged violation of NCAA rules, the expectation was that his absence would greatly impact the betting line for the Bulldogs' game at Missouri on Saturday. But the news did not change the odds much at The Wynn, according to executive director of race & sports operations Johnny Avello.
Avello adjusted the spread from Georgia -3 flat to -3 (even).
“I took it down for like 10 seconds,” said Avello, who opened Georgia as a 3-point road favorite last Sunday. “I knew what I was going to do with it. I took it down, put it back up and see what the players were going to do with it. That game has been back up now for 24 hours without a play at 3 even money.
“They’ve (bettors) got to let me know that they like Missouri a little in this game. You’ve got to remember, this is a huge game for Georgia. If they can get by this game, they get Auburn at home, they could actually run the table. They’ve got to beat Auburn at home, but they can win the rest of those games.”
Other oddsmakers made more drastic moves with the number, however. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, for example, reposted the game as a pick 'em on Friday, before an adjustment to Georgia -1.
While Gurley will certainly be missed to some degree by the Bulldogs, they still have a strong program led by head coach Mark Richt that is filled with outstanding recruits, including four-star freshman RB Nick Chubb. Avello said Gurley is worth only a half-point to the line because running backs are simply not valued as much as quarterbacks at the college level.
“Yeah the running back is gone, but believe me, the coach is formulating another game plan without that running back,” Avello said. “Who knows who comes out of the wings, the next running back for Georgia. Maybe some great player emerges. That’s why you can never make real big adjustments in college. In pro football, we know that if Adrian Peterson’s not playing, we know that the backup’s not anywhere near his potential. In college, we never know that. The backup could be the next coming of Adrian Peterson. So we’ve got be a little careful on our adjustments.”
Will Hurricanes storm Bearcats?
One of the biggest college football line moves this week involves a non-conference game between the Miami Hurricanes and Cincinnati Bearcats. The Hurricanes opened as 11.5-point home favorites at The Wynn against the Bearcats, who will likely be without starting quarterback Gunner Kiel due to a rib injury. Miami was up to -17 as of Friday, and Avello said his opening number already factored in Kiel possibly not playing.
“That’s probably some of it, but I think I kind of knew that going in,” Avello said. “That game blew up. I really thought the right number was around 11, no higher than 13. But Cincinnati got thrashed against Memphis last week. Even if they announce he’s going to play, this line won’t come back that much.”
Marshall overrated against Middle Tennessee State?
The Marshall Thundering Herd have yet to lose a game this season at 5-0 (4-1 ATS), but they host a tough Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders team on Saturday that is also unbeaten in Conference USA play at 3-0 (4-2 SU overall, 4-2 ATS). Avello said the Blue Raiders are a quality team that should not be overlooked in this spot, despite bettors moving Marshall from a 19-point favorite to -24 this week.
“I don’t like that many points as a favorite,” Avello said. “Marshall does score 45-50 points a game. And defensively they play pretty good. They’re about style points, they try to run up the score.
“This Middle Tennessee State team is not that bad. They also beat Old Dominion. They lost to Memphis in a competitive game. They lost a close one at Minnesota. They beat Southern Miss last week. This team knows how to win. They’ve had a winning record the last couple years. When they did play Marshall last year, they won the game by two points, they were getting eight at home. Eight doesn’t translate to 24 on the switch of home fields. I just think the spread’s getting pushed up a little high.”
Other major Week 7 college football line moves
-- Washington from -3 down to +3.5 at California (click here for more on this game from earlier this week)
-- Arkansas State from -14.5 down to -10 at Georgia State
-- Iowa State from -7 down to -3 at home vs. Toledo
-- UAB from -2 up to -6.5 at home vs. North Texas
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