LAS VEGAS – The top-ranked Florida State Seminoles bring their 19-game winning streak to Raleigh on Saturday for an ACC matchup with the unbeaten North Carolina State Wolfpack (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Seminoles expect to have reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston back in the lineup following a one-game suspension, and they will be looking to break a four-game skid against the spread.
The Line: Florida State -19.5, Total: 58
Line movement: By seeing another monster line move in the opponent’s favor, one may think Winston was in line to miss another game. The Seminoles opened as 27.5-point road favorites against N.C. State at The Wynn but fell all the way to -19.5 by Tuesday; FSU's line vs. Clemson dropped 10 points last week with Winston out the entire game. Other books in Vegas opened Florida State much lower, at -21.5,and there were some -18.5s being dealt Thursday. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Florida State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. N.C. State is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Florida State.
The OVER is 6-0 in Florida State’s last six road games vs. ACC opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in N.C. State’s last eight home games.
Florida State fizzles without Winston: The Seminoles were lucky to get by Clemson at home last week, 22-17 in overtime, with backup Sean Maguire subbing for Winston. The Tigers practically gave the game away with a pair of missed field goals and a key fumble late in the game that kept them from winning it. Motivation seems to be a major factor working against the defending national champions right now and could be again on the road against an N.C. State team that has owned the 'Noles from a point spread perspective.
Not only has Winston’s bid for a second straight Heisman taken a hit, but bettors continue to fade Florida State. The Seminoles were one of the big movers earlier in the week, dropping from -27.5 down to -22.5 at The Wynn from Sunday to Monday.
“They’ve got a lack of motivation I guess, getting up for games,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “I wouldn’t want to coach this bunch, I’ll tell you that. But the talent’s there. They play N.C. State every year. N.C. State is undefeated, so Florida State certainly has got something to play for.”
The Seminoles are no longer the favorites to win the national championship.
Wolfpack way down in power ratings: North Carolina State is tied for No. 63 in the latest edition of the Don Best/Linemakers College Football Power Ratings, down from a tie for 56th a week ago.
While the Wolfpack have enjoyed a lot of ATS success against Florida State over the past 13 years and won six of the meetings outright during that stretch, they have not yet been able to turn the corner and become a legitimate Top 25 college football program. Keep in mind, this is a team that lost eight straight games at the end of last season (1-7 ATS) before starting this year at 4-0.
N.C. State head coach Dave Doeren is trying to change the culture in his second season after going 3-9 last season, including 0-8 in the ACC. Doeren led North Illinois to a 23-4 record in two years there before leaving for Raleigh, and he seems focused on building a strong foundation without leaning too much on what has happened in the past.
“It has no bearing to what happens in this game,” Doeren said about the Wolfpack winning five of the last seven home games against the Seminoles. “It just shows that Carter-Finley is a great stadium. It's a hard place to win.”
Weather: The forecast calls for warm temperatures, around 78 degrees, with partly cloudy skies and winds 5 to 10 mph. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping help: Florida State-NC State matchup analysis | FSU team page | NCSU team page
The Linemakers' lean: Florida State simply isn’t the same team this season, with complacency creeping into the locker room. The Seminoles allowed Clemson over 400 yards total on offense, the most they've given up in a game since 2012. They're in for a dogfight Saturday night against a team that always gives them fits. Some of the value is gone, though, so a slight lean to N.C. State at +19.5.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.Sign up for The Linemakers’ free newsletter and follow us on Twitter.