Last year, after two NCAA Tournament games were played at NRG Stadium, Ken Pomeroy wrote about how difficult a shooting environment the Houston Texans' indoor home is. He — and we'll do the same — acknowledges that this is a small sample size and a certain level of randomness could be at play.
But ask any basketball player, and they'll tell you it makes sense — a strange backdrop can greatly throw off your shooting. There are venues shooters love, some that are neutral, and others they hate. Some have admitted NRG Stadium is different.
MORE: College basketball live odds page | Final Four opening lines
So let's apply this to betting, specifically when thinking about this weekend's Final Four, which will be played there, by looking at results from NRG Stadium's 13 college basketball games since 2008. There were three games played in 2002, but as Pomeroy notes, the conditions were much different, so we won't include those.
It's also worth noting that the entire stadium will be exposed for the Final Four, while a black curtain covered much of empty seating behind the baskets for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.
| Date | Fav | Dog | S | O/U | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28/2008 | Memphis | Mich St. | -5.5 | 135.5 | 94-72 | Over/Fav |
| 3/28/2008 | Texas | Stanford | -2 | 134 | 82-62 | Over/Fav |
| 3/30/2008 | Memphis | Texas | -3.5 | 144.5 | 85-67 | Over/Fav |
| 3/26/2010 | Duke | Purdue | -8.5 | 127.5 | 70-57 | Under/Fav |
| 3/26/2010 | Baylor | St. Mary's | -5 | 141.5 | 72-49 | Under/Fav |
| 3/28/2010 | Duke | Baylor | -5 | 137.5 | 78-71 | Over/Fav |
| 4/2/2011 | Butler | VCU | -3.5 | 132 | 72-60 | Push/Fav |
| 4/2/2011 | Kentucky | UConn | -2.5 | 139 | 56-55 | Under/Dog |
| 4/4/2011 | UConn | Butler | -3 | 132 | 53-41 | Under/Fav |
| 12/8/2012 | UCLA | Texas | -6 | 133.5 | 65-63 | Under/Dog |
| 3/27/2015 | Gonzaga | UCLA | -8.5 | 144.5 | 74-62 | Under/Fav |
| 3/27/2015 | Duke | Utah | -4.5 | 133 | 63-57 | Under/Fav |
| 3/29/2015 | Duke | Gonzaga | -1.5 | 145 | 66-52 | Under/Fav |
All told, the UNDER is 8-4-1 at NRG Stadium, including a run of six straight. Favorites, strangely enough, are 11-2 against the spread and 12-1 straight-up.
Pomeroy notes that teams made just 32 percent of their 3-point attempts in those games. That would rank 260th on average in Division I, and considering nine of these games were on the NCAA Tournament's second weekend and three were in the Final Four, the teams were probably a little better than that.
Both totals for this weekend's games sit around 145. The Villanova-Oklahoma game opened at 149 at CG Technology and was bet down to 145.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. The UNC-Syracuse total opened at 146.5/147 at most books, and dipped to 145/144.5.
The value in either total may be zapped, but this is something to consider. Pomeroy's statistical model predicts a 75-72 win for Villanova and a 76-69 victory for North Carolina.
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