LAS VEGAS – Duke will be going for its fourth straight win and eighth in nine games this season when the Blue Devils visit the Carrier Dome on Saturday for a meeting with Syracuse (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3) in an ACC matchup. This game may lack the drama that the schools shared on the college basketball hardwood last year, as the Orange are simply trying to avoid losing their third in a row and seventh in eight games following a 2-0 start.
The Line: Duke -3.5, Total: 51
Line movement: Duke opened as a 4-point road favorite at The Wynn on Sunday, quickly dropping to -3.5 within a few minutes. Many shops bounced between -3 and -3.5 during early wagering. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Duke is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road games against ACC opponents. Duke is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four games.
The UNDER is 3-0 in Duke’s last three games as a road favorite. The UNDER is 5-1 in Duke’s last six road games against ACC opponents. The UNDER is 5-2 in Syracuse’s last seven home games against ACC opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Syracuse’s last eight games overall.
Duke flying off the radar: If you look at the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings, you need to keep scrolling down the Top 25 until you find the Blue Devils (7-1) below other two-loss teams, such as Clemson, Georgia and Arizona. Three-loss West Virginia is just one spot below No. 22 Duke.
Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, they will continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the ACC. They lack respect from the committee because they play in the weaker Coastal Division, where only two other teams besides them have a winning record overall. They are already bowl eligible but not getting much love from oddsmakers either, currently sitting in a tie at No. 42 in the Don Best/Linemakers College Football Power Ratings with the likes of Boston College, North Carolina, Tennessee and Central Florida.
The worst part is Duke’s remaining schedule favors them winning out, including this matchup at Syracuse and home games against Virginia Tech (4-5), North Carolina (4-5) and Wake Forest (2-6), until they likely face defending national champion Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Still, a win over the unbeaten Seminoles would not guarantee the Blue Devils a spot in the top four when compared to other one-loss teams from more powerful conferences like the SEC, Big 12 and Pac-12. The team’s only blemish this season remains a 22-10 loss at Miami back on Sept. 27 as a 3.5-point underdog and the lone non-cover against the spread in its last six games.
“If we had that kind of dream come true, and we're at 12-1, then I’m going to campaign,” Duke head coach David Cutcliffe said. “I can promise you that. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. I think sometimes the people in different areas of the country don't know yet who we are, and I don't blame them. What I tell our players is if it bothers you, then keep winning.”
And continuing to cover the spread probably would not hurt either.
Syracuse turnovers adding up: The Orange have beaten the spread in three of their past four games but have just one win to show for it, beating Wake Forest 30-7 on the road three weeks ago as 6-point favorites. Part of their problems lately have come as a result of turnovers, committing six in the last two games combined, which ended up as losses to Clemson and North Carolina State by a combined score of 40-23.
Meanwhile, Duke has not committed a turnover during its three-game winning streak, which Syracuse head coach Scott Shafer is well aware of. Shafer has a lot of respect for his opponent because they do all the little things so well, and he can only hope his team can find a way to do the same in its home finale. The Orange have lost four straight at the Carrier Dome, going 1-3 ATS.
“Really, the biggest concern is just that they're very good at what they do – a veteran offensive line that communicates extremely well and has played a lot of football together, and behind them having that quarterback,” Shafer said about the Blue Devils, including quarterback Anthony Boone. “That's where it starts – with a quarterback and an offensive line. Smart, bright kids from Duke. They don't make a lot of mistakes.”
Long gone: Syracuse starting quarterback A.J. Long, who is dealing with a nerve problem in his throwing arm, is doubtful for Saturday, per ESPN. The injury came in last week's matchup against North Carolina State, although the severity of the injury went unnoticed until practice early this week.
“I don't know how it happened, but between his neck and his shoulder pads, he's got a footprint,” Shafer said. “He's got cleat marks on his back, toward his shoulder on the right side.”
Redshirt freshman Austin Wilson will likely get the nod if Long cannot play. Wilson has appeared in three games this season, the most recent being Syracuse's 38-20 loss to Florida on Oct. 11. Wilson suffered a concussion that game, but returned to practice two weeks ago in a healthier state.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | DUKE team page | SYR team page
The Linemakers' lean: Vinny Magliulo likes Duke and UNDER, believing the Blue Devils are no fluke with a 5-2-1 ATS record this season and their only loss coming to Miami. Their five covers have all come within their last six games. Micah Roberts isn’t so sure about Duke winning or covering this game, which happens to be its fifth straight with a spread of 3 or 3.5. Because of Syracuse’s inept offense, though, Micah like the game UNDER, just like five of the past six Orange games have gone. The plays here Duke and UNDER.
Information from ESPN and the Associated Press was used in this report.
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