Duke vs. Yale
2:40 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: Duke -6 Total: 146
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Trends: Duke 24-10 SU, 14-17-2 ATS, 15-18 O/U. Yale 23-6 SU, 12-7-1 ATS, 11-8 O/U.
KenPom efficiency ratings: Duke 22 (overall), 4 (offense), 121 (defense). Yale 36, 80, 25
Effective FG percentage: Duke 53.7, Yale 52.7 EFG% against: Duke 49.5, Yale 46.4
What to like about Duke — Strong guard play. The Blue Devils don't turn the ball over and shoot well, which has made them one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
What's not to like about Duke — Lack of depth. Duke ranks 346th in bench minute percentage, which isn't always a bad thing, but in this case, we know Duke is thin. The Blue Devils are also fairly thin in the front court, and outside of Marshall Plumlee, get bodied often on the glass.
What's to like about Yale — Front court. The Bulldogs rank top 10 nationally in rebounding on both ends and out-manned a much more athletic Baylor team in the first round. They have a top 60 EFG for and against.
What's not to like about Yale — Yale lost guard Jack Montague while he's being investigated for sexual misconduct, and it leaves the Bulldogs thin in the back court. They turn the ball over at a high rate and don't shoot free throws particularly well, though they were 22 of 29 (including Makai Mason's 11 of 11) against Baylor.
Pick: Yale, as it did against Baylor, can beat Duke in the post. The Blue Devils got by UNC Wilmington, but this game could pose more of a matchup problem. UNCW had almost no bigs down the stretch as it dealt with foul trouble. We'll back Yale at +6 here.
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