Several conferences, including the Big 12 and AAC, are into their semi-final round on Friday. The Linemakers on Sporting News bring our Las Vegas perspective and offer picks on a pair of these games in today’s newsletter.
You can read more about tonight’s semi-final action here and our preview of tonight's conference quarterfinals here.
Big 12: Iowa State vs. Kansas (-3.5, 156), 7 p.m. ESPNU
Both teams were put to the test – but ended up covering as short favorites – in typically competitive Big 12 games yesterday at Sprint Center. Iowa State (-3.5) got by Kansas State 91-85, while Kansas backers were fortunate to cash, as it took the Jayhawks, 3-point favorites, overtime to beat Oklahoma State.
Kansas has owned Iowa State of late, winning five straight in the series and covering four in a row, including 88-73 as a 5.5-point favorite in last year’s Big 12 semis. Four of the five matchups have also gone OVER the total, and both teams have been solid OVER bets this season. Kansas is 17-13-1 O/U, Iowa State is 16-12.
The Linemakers' lean: Kansas handled Iowa State in both meetings this season, covering both, while the tempo was split with one OVER and one UNDER. The Cyclones average 82 points per game, while Kansas averages 79 ppg, so with the total set at 156, we have a definite lean to the OVER. While Iowa State has revenge on its mind, we give Kansas an extra point for home-court edge at Sprint Center. If they can be found at -3, we have a small lean to the Jayhawks.
AAC: Houston vs. Louisville (-18, 144.5), 7 p.m. ESPN2
Laying this many points in a conference semifinal can be a nerve-racking experience. But if you choose to do it with Louisville at FedEx Forum tonight, you’ll have a ticket on the team with the largest average margin of victory in the country (21.2).
From a point-spread standpoint, the Cardinals have thrived in this role of late, covering seven of their past eight when laying 9 points or more, including as a 14.5-point favorite at Houston last month. The Cardinals also covered as 17.5-point home chalk in January against tonight’s opponent.
With Monday’s upset over SMU, Houston has won five of its past six. Most of the competition during that run won’t impress many people, but there is a home win over Memphis in that mix, and the Cougars also beat UConn earlier this season.
The Linemakers’ lean: While Louisville covered both games against Houston this season, that was when Houston was at its worst. The Cougars are now looking better than they have all season, covering seven of their past nine games. However, the spread is right where it should be, so we don't see value taking the points, especially considering Louisville’s penchant for winning by huge margins. The better play looks to be the OVER, a pace that has coincided with Houston’s improved play. Louisville should excel under that pace.