LAS VEGAS -- The 2014 college football season is finally upon us, and this is a tough time for oddsmakers, who – like handicappers – do their best to project how good and bad teams will be early on, before adjusting their numbers as the year progresses. Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, has been busy bracing for the storm of betting activity that will take place over the next five days with dozens of games on the Week 1 board.
“These games have been up a couple weeks, so there have been some wiseguy moves early, and then they kind of settle out," Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News. On big game days, they’ll get hit pretty hard. A lot of times, the favorite gets whacked, so they end up going back the other way.
“It’s hard to gauge the first week out of the box. You only can go by any personnel changes – some teams will lose like 20 guys, but they’re still going to be good. But you don’t know that yet. In pro football, we know that. This is hard. We know (only) so much early, we know a lot more after the first week, and we get a little more knowledgeable as we go on.”
The biggest game kicking off on Thursday features two top-25 teams from the SEC, with the ninth-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks hosting the 21st-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (6 p.m. ET, SEC). These schools have not played each other in the two previous years Texas A&M has been in the conference, and both are breaking in new quarterbacks, with former Aggie Johnny Manziel and Gamecock Connor Shaw now teammates with the NFL’s Cleveland Browns.
“We opened that game (South Carolina -10), it’s been up as high as 11, and we’re at 10.5 (as of Thursday morning),” Avello said. “I know Johnny Football’s not there, but A&M is still a quality program. There’s a lot of new players, a lot of players left over from last season, but not the quarterback. And that’s what they’re associated with.
“The win total on South Carolina this year is 9.5, so they’re expected to have a good season, and they certainly wouldn’t want to stumble out of the blocks right here. The game has moved a little between 10 and 11, but I’m sure there will be a play on that game.”
Pick: The Linemakers handicap Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
While Aggies vs. Gamecocks may be the biggest matchup on Thursday, the biggest line move so far belongs to a non-conference game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (7 p.m., ESPNU). The Warhawks won 21-19 at Wake Forest last year as 2.5-point underdogs and will be facing a rebuilding Demon Deacons team.
“Wake Forest is a huge move,” Avello said. “We opened up Wake Forest -4, we’re now at Monroe -1. That game moved fast. Wake Forest, there’s not a lot there. Maybe the Monroe team has some better athletes than we’re all anticipating. That is a lot of movement, we’ll see if that holds up.”
All eyes on Ohio State’s freshman QB
On Saturday, the fifth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will face the Navy Midshipmen at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium (12 p.m., CBS Sports Network). The Middies will likely have a small home-field advantage in Maryland, but bettors will be watching Ohio State redshirt freshman QB J.T. Barrett, who will be making his first career start in place of injured star Braxton Miller.
“That game we opened 14.5. I remember that game went up as high as 16.5, dropped back down to 14.5, and now we’re at 16 again,” said Avello, referencing some line turbulence after it was announced Miller would miss the entire season with a shoulder injury. “Ohio State’s starting a freshman (quarterback), so he’s probably good. I mean, why wouldn’t he be?
“This game I have mixed feelings on. I’ve seen Navy really play over their heads many times. They’re well-coached, too. But they don’t have quite the athletes that Ohio State has. I guess if anything, you could give Navy a little bit of home field.”
Bettors backing Cavs hosting Bruins
Another key game on Saturday has the seventh-ranked UCLA Bruins traveling to the East Coast for a regular-season game for the first time since 2009 to face the Virginia Cavaliers (12 p.m., ESPN). Bruins QB Brett Hundley will be trying to impress Heisman Trophy voters and hopes to make an early statement.
“We opened that game 23, it was 21 (Tuesday) and back at 22 now,” Avello said. “You won’t find that anywhere else in the world. We’re very high on that game. UCLA’s projections are really good. Offensively, they’re really good, no question about it.
“Virginia’s always a funny team for me to handicap. First of all, they’re not usually a good football team. They’ll show you a good game now and then, and you don’t know when that’s going to be. I just don’t see a lot of quality football players there. They won’t come back in this game if UCLA gets up 21-0, this game will end up 46-7 or something like that.”
Will Tide roll West Virginia in Atlanta?
The second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide is another top 10 team on display Saturday, when they meet the West Virginia Mountaineers in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome (3:30 p.m., ABC and ESPN2). Early money has come in on West Virginia, with Alabama breaking in a new yet-to-be-named starting QB.
“They took the dog for a little bit,” said Avello, noting a small move with the Tide going from -27 to -26.5. “When it comes to Alabama, we all know what we’re going to get by time the season’s over most likely. They’re experimenting with a new quarterback, and I’m sure he’s going to be ok. And I’m sure they can run the football. And I’m sure their defense is going to be great. I guess the word out is that the defense is real good.”
Marshall’s status moves money on Arkansas
Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Marshall will not be starting at QB for the sixth-ranked Auburn Tigers when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday (4 p.m., SEC), but he will get into the game at some point, according to head coach Gus Malzahn. Marshall was disciplined after he was cited for possession of marijuana, but it’s only a matter of when, not if, he gets into the game against the Razorbacks.
“That game’s dropping as we speak right now,” Avello said. “We just went to 20. There’s a little Arkansas money there. You know the kid’s not starting the game, (but) he’ll be in there.”
Baylor could cover big number against SMU
Sunday’s featured game will take place in Waco, where the 10th-ranked Baylor Bears host to the SMU Mustangs (7:30 p.m., FOX Sports 1). The All-Texas matchup has the highest total of the Week 1 at 73.5. The Bears opened at -31 and have since risen to -33. Last year, they scored at least 69 points in each of their first four games.
Avello is a fan of Baylor and believes it’s only a matter of time before bettors move the total to 75.
“Somebody asked me the other day, who’s the sleeper to win the national title?” Avello said. “To me, that’s the sleeper. They’re probably still a top 10 team, but they can score with anybody.”
Other notable line moves:
-- Vanderbilt went from -17 down to -14 hosting Temple on Thursday
-- Ole Miss is up to -10.5 from -10 facing Boise State on Thursday in the Georgia Dome
-- Rutgers is down to -8 from -10 playing Washington State on Friday in Seattle
-- Northwestern is back up to -10.5 from -10 after opening -12 hosting California on Saturday
-- LSU is up to -5 from -4.5 taking on Wisconsin on Saturday in Houston
Here the Week 1 college football spreads and totals posted at the Wynn as of Thursday morning:
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Texas A&M at South Carolina (-10.5, 60.5)
Wake Forest at Louisiana-Monroe (-1.5, 45.5)
Tulane at Tulsa (-6.5, 47)
Ole Miss (-10.5, 52.5) vs. Boise State
Temple at Vanderbilt (-13.5, 50.5)
Rutgers at Washington State (-8, 63.5)
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota (-14.5)
Idaho State at Utah (-41)
Weber State at Arizona State (-47)
Friday, August 29, 2014
BYU (-16.5, 51.5) at UConn
Bowling Green State (-7, 61) at Western Kentucky
Colorado State vs. Colorado (-3, 59.5)
Texas-San Antonio at Houston (11, 55.5)
UNLV at Arizona (-24, 60)
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Penn State vs. Central Florida (-1, 47)
Ohio State (-16, 56) at Navy
UCLA (-22, 56.5) at Virginia
App State at Michigan (-34.5, 54)
Troy at UAB (-2.5, 67)
California at Northwestern (-10.5, 60)
Georgia Southern at NC State (-21.5)
Florida Atlantic at Nebraska (-22.5)
Boston College (-17) at Massachusetts
Marshall (-24) at Miami (OH)
Rice at Notre Dame (-21, 51)
West Virginia vs. Alabama (-27, 55.5)
Arkansas at Auburn (-19.5, 58)
Clemson at Georgia (-7.5, 55)
Ohio at Kent State (-3)
Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma (-38)
Western Michigan at Purdue (-11, 53)
Idaho at Florida (-36, 50.5)
Fresno State at Southern Cal (-21.5, 59)
Southern Miss at Mississippi State (-30.5, 55.5)
Washington (-16.5, 59) at Hawaii
Florida State (-18.5, 63.5) vs. Oklahoma State
North Texas at Texas (-25)
UTEP at New Mexico (-7.5)
Wisconsin vs. LSU (-5, 50)
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Utah State at Tennessee (-6, 51)
Southern Methodist at Baylor (-33, 73.5)
Miami (FL) at Louisville (-3.5, 53.5)
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