LAS VEGAS -- The betting public always seems to wager based on what they saw last, and Week 2 of the college football slate is no exception. Among the teams that have been bet up or down the most at the Wynn sports book in Las Vegas this week include the Fresno State Bulldogs (going from +7.5 to +13 vs. the Utah Utes), the Oregon Ducks (from -10.5 to -13.5 vs. the Michigan State Spartans) and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (from +14.5 to +10 vs. the Oregon State Beavers).
Fresno State looked absolutely abysmal last week in a 52-13 loss at USC, and the public obviously took notice in moving the number in favor of the Utes to nearly two touchdowns. Johnny Avello, the Wynn's executive director of race & sports operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Friday afternoon that this move is typical of bettors wagering mainly on last week’s performance.
“I guess that’s kind of indicative of Fresno’s team last week,” Avello said. “I adjusted, but I guess I didn’t adjust enough. Utah didn’t play anybody last week – Idaho State – they scored a bunch of points. The feeling is that this will be a high-scoring game, and maybe Fresno won’t be able to stay with them. It’s going to be the Fresno team we saw last week, it certainly isn't the Fresno team we saw last year.”
The Ducks have moved slightly higher than the 13-point line they were laying earlier in the week, and Avello thinks the Spartans could be in trouble if they fail to keep up on the scoreboard early.
“If you go back and look at their last three years, (Oregon) averaged like 50-60 points per game at the beginning of the year,” Avello said. “For the most part, they get Nevada or Missouri State, Tennessee Tech, Virginia, Tennessee – they lay the lumber on these schools.
“Michigan State going into the year was picked as a top 5 team, top 10 legitimately. (They) finished the season strong, good coaching, a lot of guys back. The feeling is they’re probably too slow (to keep up with Oregon). Usually what happens with a team like this is Oregon can run up the score. We’re going to kind of know early on in this game. Because I can tell you right now, if Michigan State doesn’t stay with them early, they won’t be staying with them late. This team will have three touchdowns before you ever blink an eye."
Should the line move to 14, the "wiseguys may be very interested" in Michigan State, Avello added.
Another Oregon school, Oregon State, is being faded a bit at Hawaii despite the fact that the Beavers routed the Rainbow Warriors 33-14 at home last year. Avello thinks that is due to how well Hawaii played at home last week in a 17-16 loss to Washington as an 18-point underdog. But Avello also said there is another factor that could be working in Oregon State’s favor – a week off after this game.
“Oregon State struggled with Portland State, who’s pretty bad,” Avello said about last week’s opponent for the Beavers. “Hawaii played a pretty good game against Washington, getting 18 points and losing the game by a point. I guess they’re improved, but I don’t know. They played at Oregon State last year, they got beat up pretty good in that game.
“I’m not sure Mike Riley’s going to let this team take this game easy. Oregon State is off next week. So you go there, you give it all you got and then you have time. You want to stay extra day or two and drink Mai Tais or something. There’s nothing to look forward to next week, only this game.”
Other notable Week 2 college football line moves at the Wynn:
-- Texas -4 to pick’ em at home vs. BYU
-- Penn State -18 to -14 at home vs. Akron
-- Kentucky -8 to -13 at home vs. Ohio
-- Maryland -10 to -13.5 at South Florida
-- New Mexico State +2.5 to -1.5 at Georgia State