LAS VEGAS – Two teams ranked in the top 4 of the Don Best/Linemakers College Football Power Ratings face their biggest tests of the season this Saturday, and bettors have been wagering against them in early action at The Wynn. The unbeaten Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners remain top contenders to win the 2015 national championship, yet both are being faded by the public as they open conference play.
The second-ranked Crimson Tide host the 16th-ranked Florida Gators in a key SEC matchup, before the fourth-ranked Sooners visit the 37th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers later in a Big 12 battle. Alabama opened -19 and was bet all the way down to -14.5, before being nudged back up to 15; Oklahoma moved from -13.5 to -7.5., marking the two biggest line moves on the betting board so far.
“I know Alabama hasn’t looked that great – it’s hard to say really,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Monday morning. “How much do you get up for some of these games? The West Virginia game they looked ok, first game of the year. Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss, they beat them both easily. But it’s hard to say how good the Alabama team is, we’ll find out this week.
“The Florida team last week struggled a little bit with Kentucky, (and needed) a couple overtimes to win that game. I think they’re a better team (than last season), but I don’t think they’re at Alabama’s caliber. I think you’ll see this game go back up. This game will probably close 17.”
Futures odds: Georgia, USC fall after upsets
Meanwhile, the Sooners have failed to cover the spread in the last three meetings with the Mountaineers, including a 50-49 win in Morgantown two years ago as 10.5-point favorites. Last year, West Virginia scored only one touchdown but still managed to cover in a 16-7 loss at Norman as a 21-point underdog. Oklahoma is coming off a 34-10 home win over Tennessee, covering as a 21-point favorite, while the Mountaineers pulled off a 40-37 upset of Maryland on the road as 3-point underdogs.
“They had that game in hand early, and they let Maryland back in the game – they almost lost that game,” Avello said of West Virginia. “I don’t think that Oklahoma team over the last two years is the same. This is a different Oklahoma team, a real good Oklahoma team. ... Their defense is solid.”
East Carolina, Arkansas impressing oddsmakers
The East Carolina Pirates and Arkansas Razorbacks both enjoyed big road wins on Saturday, and oddsmakers are taking notice. Avello said he has been impressed with East Carolina off a 28-21 upset win at Virginia Tech as a 9.5-point underdog, while Arkansas finally appears to be on the right track following a 49-28 victory at Texas Tech as a pick’ em.
However, bettors are liking the Pirates and Razorbacks, too, moving their games 1.5 points in early wagering at The Wynn. East Carolina opened -1 hosting North Carolina and is up to -2.5, with Arkansas rising to -13.5 at home against Northern Illinois from -12.
“East Carolina is a pretty good football team,” Avello said. “The quarterback (Shane Carden), he’s a good player. This team fears no one. I really like this team. They don’t care who the giant is, they really don’t. They really feel like they can compete. So I understand the move on them.
“(Arkansas) is certainly a better team. They’re improving, and I think they might have the right coach there right now (Bret Bielema). (Northern Illinois) is so far out of conference, that’s why there’s been a move on the game. You’re looking at conference versus conference, that’s a touchdown alone without even looking at the teams.”
Marshall a national championship contender?
The only other game that moved more than 2 points in early betting involves the Marshall Thundering Herd. Marshall is off to a 3-0 start and has covered two straight. The Thundering Herd visit Akron this week and opened at -13 before dropping to -10.5 late Monday morning. Regardless of the line move in the home underdog’s favor, Avello is a Marshall fan.
“Marshall’s actually on my list now for national title,” Avello said. “They’re not going to win it, but they’ve been added to my list for college football national title. They’re high, 500-to-1 (odds). But still, I had to put them on here because of the way they’re playing. A good football team, isn’t it?
“It’s a better chance now than it’s ever been before. You run the table, but the problem is strength of schedule. They won't play one team all year that's in the top 50. I love the coach’s name, though, Doc Holliday. Sounds like you could have a drink with him after the game.”
Week 4 college football opening lines, Wynn
This story has been edited since its original posting.
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