AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for this week’s NCAA Football card:
No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 15 Georgia Bulldogs
After a late-game heartbreak against Texas A&M, Auburn heads to Georgia to face a Bulldogs team that has been largely unstoppable on offense. Sitting at No. 4 in the SEC, Auburn is still very alive in the division race given the tiebreaker over Ole Miss and the looming late-season matchup against Alabama. That game, however, won’t have nearly the same feel without an Auburn victory in Athens this Saturday.
Las Vegas has Georgia as -140 money-line favorites. After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives the Bulldogs nearly a 61 percent chance of winning. Based on AccuScore data, Georgia should be at about -160. While both Vegas and AccuScore pick the same winner, the probability from the simulations makes the -140 that much more appealing. With an average score of 45-39, AccuScore data is very confident in the home team.
Georgia quarterback Hutson Mason was on top of his game last week, completing 81 percent of his passes, four of which went for TDs. He finished with an eye-boggling 255.1 passer rating.
After 10,000-plus simulations, Mason averages 257 passing yards. If he can have a performance with greater than 257 passing yards and at least a 2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio -- which there’s a 42 percent chance of -- Georgia’s winning probability jumps up to 74 percent.
For Auburn, the player with the biggest impact in simulations is running back Cameron Artis-Payne. He’s averaging 125 rushing yards per simulated game. If he has a game with more than 125 yards and at least one rushing TD -- which there’s a 35 percent chance of --chris both Auburn’s winning probability goes up to 51 percent.
Supporting Trend: The Georgia Bulldogs are 18-4 straight up (SU) in their last 22 games at home.
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