LAS VEGAS – As college football bettors head down the final stretch of the regular season, they are picking their spots and looking at motivation as a key factor when handicapping games. In Week 13, they are eyeing a primetime Big 12 matchup between Kansas State and West Virginia on Thursday night and believe the home team should be favored. That was not the case when The Wynn sports book released opening lines on Sunday, but it is now.
The Mountaineers opened as 1.5-point home underdogs but have since moved to -1.5 at The Wynn, while other shops around Las Vegas have them as high as -2.
Kansas State has dominated the past two meetings with West Virginia – decided by a combined 64 points. There's also the perceptions that the Mountaineers lack a strong home-field advantage and that Bill Snyder gives the Wildcats a coaching edge. Johnny Avello, The Wynn's executive director of race & sports operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Monday that all of that factored into his decision to open Kansas State as road chalk.
“The home field really hasn’t been that strong the last couple years,” Avello said of West Virginia, as the team is just 3-5 straight-up and against the spread in its last eight home games. “I’ve probably given a little bit of an edge in coaching to Snyder here. The players (bettors) just thought that West Virginia maybe should be the favorite at home, I don’t know. We’ll see where it ends up.”
Both teams lost to TCU recently, and despite falling on the road to the Horned Frogs 41-20 before its bye week, Kansas State is an impressive 18-6 ATS in its past 24 games away from home. The Wildcats are also 13-2 vs. the line in their last 15 as road dogs, including the loss and non-cover at TCU.
“The loss at TCU showed that they were somewhat vulnerable, but that game was at TCU,” Avello said of Kansas State. “They won at Oklahoma, so they’ve played some big games on the road.”
Buckeyes, Bears bet up
Ohio State and Baylor are each currently outside the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings, and both need to win big and get some help over the last few weeks of the regular season to climb up. Bettors apparently feel the same way, as the Buckeyes and Bears are also among the largest movers in early Week 13 action.
Ohio State opened as a 30.5-point home favorite and was already up to -34 as of Monday afternoon against an Indiana team that has lost five games in a row – all against Big Ten opponents – yet has covered the last three meetings. In fact, the Hoosiers have also not lost any of the past five head-to-head matchups with the Buckeyes by more than 28 points.
“Ohio State could probably name the number in this game, and that’s why I think it’s being driven up,” Avello said. “If this game was earlier in the year, the spread wouldn’t be this high. But I think that the bettors are feeling that Ohio State needs to win convincingly. They can’t win this game by three touchdowns, that’s not impressive enough. So I think that’s the reason for the move.”
Meanwhile, Baylor is hosting another slumping team in Oklahoma State, opening as a 23.5-point favorite and moving to -26 as of Monday afternoon. The Bears have lost seven of the last eight meetings with the Cowboys, both SU and ATS. Avello believes the line movement is more about Oklahoma State’s recent struggles than Baylor simply having the opportunity to beat up a weak foe to impress pollsters.
“It’s not a similar case – it’s a little different quality of opponent,” Avello said of the Cowboys. “This is an opponent that’s always been a really good team, and this year they’re struggling a little. This is their worst year by far over the past decade almost. (Oklahoma State’s) lost four games in a row. At one time, they were looking pretty good. Now those four games are TCU, West Virginia, Kansas State and Texas. These are tough games right now. They’re in a little bit of a slide.
“Over their last four games, they’re only averaging about 10 points a game, they’re giving up big bunches. And Baylor can score big bunches. Can they jump up with a good game? They certainly could, but by past performances, their offense has just really sputtered, and that’s been their problem.”
Other notable Week 13 college football line moves (games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
-- Louisiana Tech from -11 up to -12.5 at Old Dominion
-- North Texas from -1 up to -2.5 at home vs. Florida International
-- Notre Dame from -5.5 down to -4 at home vs. Louisville
College football Week 13 opening lines, Wynn
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