LAS VEGAS – Two Big Ten teams heading in opposite directions are involved in the biggest early college football line move of the week. Michigan is coming off a 34-10 home win over Indiana last week, while Northwestern has dropped three games in a row following a 48-7 loss at Iowa. It’s not necessarily the Wolverines winning and the Wildcats losing, but rather how they won and lost that seems to be resonating with bettors.
At The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas on Sunday, Michigan opened as a 2.5-point road underdog visiting Northwestern, but is a 2-point favorite as of late Monday afternoon. Johnny Avello, The Wynn's executive director of race & sports operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Monday that the Wildcats' recent poor play has contributed to the public’s perception of them, especially after going down 24-0 at the end of the first quarter and 38-7 at halftime against the Hawkeyes. Northwestern opened as a 5.5-point underdog in that game and was bet down to +3.5.
“They looked like they were going to turn it around with three straight wins, now they’ve got three straight losses,” Avello said of Northwestern. “It certainly lowered their power rating. They were a 5-point underdog, went down to 3.5, they lose by 40. There’s an adjustment in the power ratings.
“I just believe Northwestern should have been the favorite (vs. Michigan this week) because at home they play pretty well and the other team has not been that good on the road.”
The Wolverines have won two of three following a three-game losing streak but remain winless on the road at 0-3 straight-up and 1-2 against the spread. Avello believes they may also be rallying a bit around head coach Brady Hoke, who appears to be on his way out after the season.
“Michigan played a pretty good game last week at home, but that’s one of the very few,” Avello said. “They did beat Penn State, also at home. But on the road, lost to Rutgers, lost to Notre Dame and lost to Michigan State. This will be their fourth road game. They have beaten this team, they have handled them. But the last couple years, the games went into overtime, I can see a similar situation in this game.
“Brady Hoke’s another guy that’s probably sitting on the fence whether he’s going to keep his job or not. I hear he’s a nice guy, but he’s certainly not much of a football coach. The (line) move kind of makes sense to me -- I still think it’s going to be a field-goal game.”
Bettors backing Clemson at Wake Forest
Another early line move worth noting has Clemson as a 22-point road favorite visiting Wake Forest on Thursday night. The Tigers opened -20 at The Wynn, and bettors jumped on that number despite the fact Clemson has struggled to score with senior quarterback Cole Stoudt replacing freshman Deshaun Watson, who has missed the last two games with a hand injury. Watson was injured in the first quarter of a 23-17 win over Louisville, the first of three consecutive games Clemson has failed to cover.
“The reason I didn’t open this game a little higher was probably because of the lack of offense from Clemson,” Avello said. “The last three games, they’re averaging about 18-19 points per game. They’re the better team, I was just a little leery of putting too big of a spread on a team that doesn’t score much.
“I guess on the bettors’ side, Wake Forest has just been losing to everybody. Now and then, they do play a decent game. Clemson hasn’t been so far that type of team that can run it up on you, so that was my thinking on not going as high as maybe I was initially thinking.”
Other notable Week 11 college football line moves (games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
-- Akron from -5 up to -6.5 at home vs. Bowling Green on Tuesday
-- Northern Illinois from -1 up to -3 at Ball State on Wednesday
-- Memphis from -5.5 up to -7 (-120) at Temple on Thursday
-- Appalachian State from pick’em up to -3.5 at home vs. UL-Monroe
-- Georgia Southern from -9 up to -11 at Texas State
-- Wisconsin from -15.5 up to -17 at Purdue
-- Old Dominion from -2 up to -3.5 at home vs. Florida International
-- Arizona from -14.5 up to -16 at home vs. Colorado
-- Boise State from -16 up to -17.5 at New Mexico
-- Georgia from -12 down to -10.5 at Kentucky
-- Fresno State from -3.5 down to -1 at home vs. San Jose State
College football Week 11 opening lines, Wynn
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