The Miami Dolphins saw their offense fall flat on the road last week, and they will be hosting a team on Sunday that has been flat all-around through two games in the Kansas City Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Line: Dolphins -4, Total: 42
Line movement: The Dolphins opened as 5.5-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook but opened lower at other sports books in town, between -4 and -5. On Friday morning, the line was sitting at -4 across Vegas. The total ranges from 41.5 to 43. For updated spreads and totals, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. ...The Dolphins are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games as home favorites and 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three home games against AFC West opponents. ...The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Kansas City’s last eight games as road underdogs.
Injury report key to betting this game: How important was Miami running back Knowshon Moreno to his team’s offense last Sunday? The Dolphins went from scoring 33 points in a home win over New England to totaling 10 in a road loss to Buffalo. In Week 1 vs. the Pats, Moreno rushed for 134 yards; in Week 2 vs. the Bills, he carried the ball just once before dislocating his elbow.
While Moreno is expected to be shelved at least a month, there are some other key injuries for each team that could make this game difficult to bet until gameday inactives are announced. The Chiefs are also dealing an injury to an important offensive player, as running back Jamaal Charles suffered a high ankle sprain in the first quarter of a loss to Denver last week. Charles is doubtful and could miss a few games, and he has totaled just 23 yards on nine carries in two games after averaging five yards per carry in 2013.
MGM Resorts oddsmaker Jay Rood told Larry Hartstein of the Chiefs-Dolphins line on Thursday, “Right now we’re getting action that’s pretty well split, so I’m not going to be quick to change. But if reports come out that (Charles is) looking pretty good, 90 or 95 percent, I’d anticipate that number coming down to at least 3.5, maybe 3."
Kansas City does have the better of the two backup running backs, as second-year player Knile Davis stepped in nicely last week against the Broncos and rushed for 82 yards on 23 carries with two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Miami running back Lamar Miller underachieved last year as the starter and has 105 yards on 22 carries this year. Miller himself is dealing with a sprained ankle but is expected to play.
Overall, the Chiefs are down seven starters due to injuries and suspensions, while the Dolphins had four players who did not practice Tuesday and eight more who were limited.“We have a few injuries but we don't slow down on that,” Kansas City head coach Andy Reid said. “Football is a joint effort. It's a team sport. Everyone's got to step up and do their job just a little bit better, coaches included.”
Kansas City’s QB struggling: Nobody could blame Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith for last year’s disappointing 45-44 playoff loss at Indianapolis after the team blew a 38-10 lead. Smith had one of the best games of his career with 378 passing yards and four touchdowns plus 57 rushing yards on nine carries. However, he did not get to enjoy that performance and has seen his team drop eight of 10 games straight-up and go 4-6 against the spread since last year’s bye week.
So far this season, Smith has thrown for 457 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions as the NFL's lowest-rated passer (63.6). This after Kansas City traded for him before the start of last season and then signed him to a four-year contract extension worth $68 million less than a month ago with $45 million guaranteed.
“It's not where you hoped to be two weeks ago,” Smith said. “It's a long season though. The mentality is let's win this week, put some things together and you never know.”
Weather: The forecast calls for high temperatures, around 87 degrees, with partly cloudy skies and a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping help: Chiefs-Dolphins matchup analysis | Power Ratings | KC team page | MIA team page
The Linemakers' lean: Two of our guys in Vegas are on the same side of this game but for different reasons. The Chiefs, says Kenny White, are betting than their rating and have the all-important edges at quarterback and coach in this matchup. Brian Blessing, meanwhile, is fading the Dolphins in this spot, as Miami comes off a brutal outing in Buffalo. Kenny adds that the Dolphins must run the ball to be successful against K.C., a difficult task with the injuries to Moreno and Miller, and that the home-field advantage at Sun Life Stadium is not much of a factor. Chiefs +4 is our play.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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