AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for Thursday night’s Chargers at Broncos game (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS):
There's one thing that's practically guaranteed in Thursday night’s game in Denver: there will be plenty of scoring. After a week in which Broncos TE Julius Thomas didn't make much of an impact (four catches, 27 yards), expect Peyton Manning to target him early and often against San Diego.
The San Diego offense will look to control the pace of the game, hoping to win the time of possession battle. The Chargers will need quite the performance from QB Philip Rivers against the No. 2 defense when it comes to completion rate (58.5 percent, per Team Rankings).
As of Thursday morning, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Chargers as +320 underdogs, implying under a 24 percent chance of winning. AccuScore gives the visitors a 40 percent chance of winning the game outright, which translates into odds of +150 on the money-line. That, of course, makes San Diego at better than 3-to-1 an attractive proposition.
Many Thursday night games have been out of the ordinary this season, and there’s no reason for Week 8 not to start off with an upset. After all, San Diego won outright in Denver on a Thursday night in December last season.
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