LAS VEGAS – Western Kentucky gets a postseason rematch with Central Michigan after the schools met two years ago and hopes to cash in this time around as a favorite in the Bahamas Bowl. The Hilltoppers, as 6.5-point chalk, lost to the Chippewas 24-21 in the 2012 Little Caesars Bowl and will try to extend their overall winning streak to five games.
Line: Western Kentucky -4, Total: 68
Line movement and notes: Western Kentucky opened as a 1.5-point favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook back on Dec. 8 and then rose to -3 a day later before coming back down to -2.5. The line was up to -4 late Monday after it was announced Central Michigan running back Thomas Rawls (1,105 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns) will not play due to an academic issue. The total, meanwhile, jumped to 68 from the opener of 65. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Central Michigan is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five bowl games....Central Michigan is 5-2 SU in its last seven games....Western Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four games....Western Kentucky is 3-0 ATS in its last three games....The UNDER is 13-6 in Central Michigan’s last 19 games....The OVER is 9-3-1 in Western Kentucky’s last 13 games.
Doughty Looks to Light Up Central Michigan: Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty was named Conference USA MVP after leading FBS with a school-record 4,344 passing yards and 44 touchdowns. Doughty did not get a chance to face Central Michigan when his Hilltoppers lost to the Chippewas in the Little Caesers Bowl two years ago due to injury, and he now has the opportunity to take care of some unfinished business on Wednesday.
The redshirt senior was granted a rare sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA a year ago and teamed with running back Leon Allen (1,490 rushing yards) to help Western Kentucky (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) set school marks for total yards (6,303) and points scored (528). The duo was especially lethal in a 67-66 upset of Marshall in overtime back on Nov. 28 to end the Thundering Herd’s bid for a perfect season. Doughty threw for 491 yards and eight touchdowns, while Allen added 237 yards and another score on the ground as the Hilltoppers won as 23.5-point underdogs.
“Their quarterback is an outstanding player,” Central Michigan head coach Dan Enos said. “It all starts with him. He's a tremendous passer, he’s tough, and he makes plays. Their running back is very good. There’s going to be a lot of challenges. You’ve got to try and slow them down and we’re going to have to tackle very well.”
Chippewas' challenge: The key to beating Western Kentucky is finding a way to pick off Doughty. In the team’s five losses, he has thrown seven interceptions, including at least one in four of the games. During the current four-game winning streak for the Hilltoppers, Doughty has thrown 19 touchdowns with just two picks, both of which took place in the OT victory against Marshall. They have also failed to cover the spread in four of the six games he has thrown an interception.
The Chippewas did have the best defense in the MAC this year and ranked 14th in the country overall, allowing just 331 yards per game. They were also able to hold Western Kentucky to 327 yards in the last meeting when they were averaging 392 per game. The Hilltoppers are much better offensively this season though, averaging 525 yards and 44 points per game. Central Michigan could also struggle to keep up on the scoreboard without Rawls in the backfield.
“They have a great win under their belt in beating Northern Illinois 34-17, who won the MAC,” Western Kentucky head coach Jeff Brohm said. “They finished No. 1 in their conference in total defense. It’ll be a great challenge for our offense to see how we match up.”
More info: Central Michigan-Western Kentucky matchup
The Linemakers' lean: Central Michigan is going to have a hard time keeping up with a Western Kentucky offense that is putting up points by the bushel. Not having Thomas Rawls on the field won't help matters. The Chippewas defense has been solid, but it'll have its hands full on Wednesday. We'll lay the 4 points with Western Kentucky, which has revenge and a potential first bowl win as extra motivation. In terms of the total, we had an initial lean to the UNDER, but that was largely based on the weather being a factor. Based on new forecasts, it will not be.
Partner pick: The Quants offer Bahamas Bowl play
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
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