AccuScore's NBA pick of the day - Bucks at Magic

Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore

AccuScore's NBA pick of the day - Bucks at Magic image

Heading into Thursday's matchup, the Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing at home against the Bucks. That trend will be put to the test as the Bucks – one of this season's early surprises – look to stay above .500.

Milwaukee is a 4-point favorite with a total of 205.  Check the Linemakers on Sporting News’ odds page for current NBA spreads and totals.

The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is Bucks 101.3 – Magic 99.6

While Milwaukee does have a higher probability at a big win (10 points or more), the Magic actually have a higher chance at winning a close game (4 points or fewer).

AccuScore best bet: There's about a 57 percent chance Orlando covers a +4 spread, a 2-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

In the past week, when picking against the spread for NBA games, AccuScore is 27-21 (56.2 percent, +390 units). In Eastern Conference games, AccuScore is 8-4 (66.7 percent, +360 Units) in the last week.
 
AccuScore box score: Milwaukee averages about four more turnovers than does Orlando in simulations. While much of the box score is fairly comparable, Milwaukee does turn the ball over a bit more, giving Orlando steals that can potentially turn into easy transition buckets.

Projected leaders
Brandon Knight: 18 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 3 TOs
Nikola Vucevic: 17 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 TOs

Visit AccuScore.com for more NBA picks

Play Daily Fantasy Basketball

Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore