Bowl game picks from The Quants

Rufus Peabody for Massey-Peabody

Bowl game picks from The Quants image

It’s been a very good year for our college football picks. Overall our record on official plays was 45-32-1 (58.4 percent) and our picks beat the closing line by an average of 1.18 points. Broken down across bet types, here’s how we’ve done:

-- Big Plays: 16-11-1 (59.3 percent)
-- Other Plays: 29-21 (58.0 percent)
-- MP Leans (unofficial): 20-18-2 (52.6 percent)

Our plays broke down as follows:
-- Favorites (official): 13-15, average CLV: +0.92
-- Favorites (lean): 10-4-1, average CLV: +0.82
-- Underdogs (official): 32-17-1, average CLV: +1.32
-- Underdogs (lean): 10-13-1, average CLV: +0.79

Interestingly, we did worse on games where we had favorable line move. In all games (including leans) where the line either moved against us or did not move at all, our picks went 19-10; in games it moved our way we were 46-40. I wouldn’t read much into that, but it’s fascinating nonetheless.

Including leans, our most picked teams were UNLV (5), Kansas (5), North Carolina (4), and UCLA (4). Teams we faded the most were Wisconsin, Miami (OH), and UAB (5 each), and Baylor, San Jose State, and Western Kentucky (4 each).  You can view all our picks in one place right here.

Onto the bowl games!

Big Plays (16-11-1 YTD)
-- One Big Play on the bowl game slate, which will run in Friday’s edition of The Linemakers on Sporting News’ free newsletter. Register for that right here, then check your email after 1 p.m. ET on Friday.

Other Plays (29-21 YTD)
-- Central Michigan +3.5 vs. Western Kentucky [MP Line: C Mich -0.5]
-- Boise State +3.5 vs. Arizona [MP Line: Boise -0.4]
-- UCLA pick ‘em vs. Kansas State [MP Line: UCLA -5.3]
-- Toledo -3 vs. Arkansas State [MP Line: Toledo -7.9]

MP Leans (20-18-2 YTD)
-- Ohio State +9.5 vs. Alabama [MP Line: Ohio St +5.7]

MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games:
-- Louisiana-Lafayette -2.1 vs. Nevada
-- Utah State -10.3 vs. UTEP
-- Utah -3.6 vs. Colorado State
-- Air Force -1.1 vs. Western Michigan
-- South Alabama -1.9 vs. Bowling Green
-- Brigham Young -3.0 vs. Memphis
-- Marshall -10.3 vs. Northern Illinois
-- San Diego State -2.1 vs. Navy
-- Fresno State -2.5 vs. Rice
-- Louisiana Tech -8.5 vs. Illinois
-- North Carolina -3.3 vs. Rutgers
-- North Carolina State -0.6 vs. UCF
-- Cincinnati -1.8 vs. Virginia Tech
-- Arizona State -9.9 vs. Duke
-- Miami (FL) -1.1 vs. South Carolina
-- Boston College -3.9 vs. Penn State
-- USC -8.6 vs. Nebraska
-- West Virginia -0.2 vs. Texas A&M
-- Oklahoma -4.2 vs. Clemson
-- Arkansas -6.1 vs. Texas
-- LSU -8.2 vs. Notre Dame
-- Georgia -11.3 vs. Louisville
-- Stanford -15.2 vs. Maryland
-- TCU -4.8 vs. Ole Miss
-- Mississippi State -5.9 vs. Georgia Tech
-- Auburn -5.4 vs. Wisconsin
-- Missouri -5.3 vs. Minnesota
-- Oregon -7.4 vs. Florida State
-- Pittsburgh -6.2 vs. Houston
-- Tennessee -2.1 vs. Iowa
-- Washington -7.8 vs. Oklahoma State
-- Florida -11.9 vs. East Carolina

Play criteria are the same as they have been all year. We do not consider situational factors, motivation, lame duck coaches, etc. Lines are based purely off our power ratings, adjusted for QB injuries and pace of play.

Massey-Peabody uses a quantitative approach to sports handicapping and uses its calculations to profit at the bet window.  For more valuable betting information, visit Massey-Peabody.com.

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Rufus Peabody for Massey-Peabody