LAS VEGAS – The dreams of winning a national championship might be over for both Georgia and Auburn, but they will square off on Saturday (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a key SEC matchup that is still must-see TV. Part of that is because Bulldogs running back and former Heisman Trophy hopeful Todd Gurley will return from a four-game suspension against the Tigers, who are coming off a stunning 41-38 home loss to Texas A&M last week as 23.5-point favorites.
The Line: Georgia -2.5, Total: 68.5
Line movement and notes: Georgia opened as a 1.5-point home favorite at The Wynn on Sunday and was up to -2.5 later in the day. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released the Bulldogs at the larger number. For updated spreads and totals from around Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Auburn is 3-0 ATS in its last three games as a road underdog....Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games against SEC opponents (also 4-1 SU in the past five)....Auburn is 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings with Georgia....Georgia is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games as a home favorite....Georgia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 home games against SEC opponents.
The OVER is 4-0 in Auburn’s last four games as a road underdog....The OVER is 5-2 in Auburn’s last seven road games against SEC opponents....The OVER is 6-0 in Georgia’s last six home games against SEC opponents....The OVER is 9-1 in Georgia’s last 10 games as a home favorite.
Georgia gunning for SEC East title with Gurley back: While the Bulldogs and Tigers find themselves in similar spots heading into this game, they are in much different positions in different divisions of the SEC. Georgia and Auburn both suffered surprising losses as double-digit favorites earlier this month, but the former remains in the hunt for the SEC East title and the latter is now tied with Ole Miss and behind Mississippi State and Alabama in the SEC West.
The Bulldogs should get a boost from the return of running back Gurley, who sat out the past four games due to a suspension after admitting taking money for autographs. Gurley rushed for 773 yards and eight touchdowns in the first five games of the season and helped out in the return game as well. His shoes were filled by Nick Chubb, a freshman who totaled 671 yards and five touchdowns on the ground in the four games.
“There’s no doubt that he’s an electric player and the best at what he does,” Georgia center David Andrews said of Gurley. “I can’t wait to look up and see that No. 3 running down the field. I’m ready to go out there and play with him.”
But are bettors ready to back the Bulldogs with Gurley returning to the lineup? That is to be determined. So far, there has been little to no line movement in either team’s favor. Last month when he was suspended prior to Georgia’s game at Missouri, Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News that Gurley was only worth about a half-point to the line.
The Bulldogs opened as 3-point favorites against the Tigers, closed as 3-point chalk and blanked them 34-0 in a game that could be used as a tie-breaker to determine the SEC East champion. Mizzou is currently 4-1 in SEC play with Georgia 5-2. The Tigers visit Texas A&M on Saturday as 4.5-point underdogs.
Auburn trying to forget last week: The Tigers nearly rallied back from an 18-point halftime deficit to defeat the Aggies last Saturday, with their comeback attempt ending on a fumbled snap with less than a minute to go. Historically speaking, that upset loss was the first time Auburn fell at home as a double-digit favorite since 2009, when Kentucky won 21-14 as a 13.5-point underdog according to the OddsShark College Football Database.
So how did the Tigers fare in their following game? They were blown out 31-10 at LSU as 7.5-point dogs. Auburn might be facing a similar scenario this time around, especially with leading receiver Duke Williams unlikely play as Brian Edwards reported in his latest Weekly Read-Option column. Williams leads the Tigers with 38 catches for 609 yards and has scored five touchdowns.
Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50s, mostly clear skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | AUB team page | GA team page
The Linemakers' lean: Georgia has a ton of weapons at its disposal now that Todd Gurley will be back with the team, and Auburn is facing a potential letdown spot after last week's painful loss, one that likely dashed its playoff hopes. Our power ratings indicate Georgia is 2 points better on a neutral field, so the price here looks cheap, especially against a defense that has averaged 35-plus points allowed over its last four games. The Tigers should still be able to put points on the board behind QB Nick Marshall and RB Cameron Artis-Payne. Georgia and OVER are the plays..
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
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