LAS VEGAS – The Arizona Wildcats are looking to improve to 5-0 for the first time since 1998 while the Oregon Ducks will try to accomplish that feat for the third year in a row when they meet Thursday night in Eugene (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Ducks and Wildcats both bring Top 10 offenses into what should be an exciting Pac-12 matchup, with the home team trying to avenge a 42-16 road loss last year as 20.5-point favorites.
Line: Oregon -23 Total: 83
Line movement and notes: Oregon opened as a 25.5-point home favorite at The Wynn on Sunday, but the Ducks were bet down to -23.5 within an hour of early wagering. At midweek, most Las Vegas sports books were dealing -23. The total opened is the 76-77 range on Wednesday and spiked all the way up to 80 at some spots. For updated spreads and totals from around Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Arizona is 6-3 in the last nine meetings with Oregon. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite. Oregon is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Oregon's last five games as a home favorite.
Just another game for Oregon? Last year when these teams met, the Oregon Ducks had already lost their opportunity for a perfect season after falling at Stanford 26-20 two weeks earlier. The Ducks were 9-1 and in the midst of failing to cover the spread in five of six games following a perfect 6-0 start vs. the line. But bettors still had to be surprised by their lopsided loss last year in Tucson, as they surrendered 307 rushing yards and a season-high 42 points to the Arizona Wildcats in a game in which they were favored by nearly three touchdowns.
One would think Oregon would be pumped to beat Arizona and prevent the Wildcats from starting 5-0 for the first time since 1998. However, Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota might be playing coy about this revenge spot even though his team again has a lot to lose here, and it could be an early preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game.
“Some people use it as a motivating factor,” Mariota said. “For us, it's just another game.”
Maybe Mariota is just speaking like a confident Heisman Trophy candidate, one who led Oregon to a 49-0 rout of Arizona in the last home meeting two years ago as a 20-point favorite. One thing’s for sure, this Ducks team has not fared well against the spread lately, going 2-7 in their last nine games, including 1-3 this season despite their 4-0 start.
More info: Arizona-Oregon matchup analysis | Weather Report
Bye week trends good and bad: The Wildcats have some young players at key positions who were not involved in last year’s game, most notably two freshmen in QB Anu Solomon and running back Nick Wilson. Solomon led Arizona to a brilliant – and lucky – 49-45 comeback victory against Cal before the team’s bye week after trailing 28-6 at halftime. His game-winning 47-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Austin Hill on the final play has made him a star.
But Solomon’s team has not fared well in the past playing on the road following a bye, going 1-4 straight-up and ATS. Ironically, the lone ATS win during that stretch came at Oregon in 2010 when the Wildcats lost 48-29 yet still covered as a 20.5-point underdog.
Oregon also had a bit of a scare before its bye week, winning 38-31 at Washington State but failing to cover as a 21.5-point favorite. The Ducks have performed well though at home after a bye, winning 10 in a row SU and going 6-2 ATS in their past eight.
The Linemakers' lean: Both teams have covered only one of their four games this season, with Oregon's point-spread win coming in a big home game against Michigan State. Arizona has struggled against everyone but UNLV in the season opener, but Oregon has covered only two of its last nine games. Micah Roberts believes Arizona will be able to score points and keep up to cover the large number. Richie Baccellieri is less confident on the side, but believes both teams will be able to contribute to the total going OVER. But that was when we thought the number was in the mid-70s; now that it's in the 80s, the value on the OVER has been decimated.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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