Today’s Argentina-Netherlands World Cup semifinal (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) is a virtual dead-heat, AccuScore predicts, suggesting the betting value is on the underdog.
Argentina won 36.9 percent of the 10,000 simulations of the game performed by AccuScore, while the Netherlands won 35.7 percent. Those percentages translate into odds of Argentina +171/Netherlands +180. As of noon ET, the LVH SuperBook has the game priced Argentina +145/Netherlands +210. The number on the Dutch is a bargain for gamblers.
The draw, at +220, does not present good betting value.
Below is a comparison of AccuScore’s forecast for Argentina-Netherlands and the theoretical odds it translates into with the betting lines at two Las Vegas sports books – the LVH and Wynn. The chart is designed to illustrate which side of the bet offers the most value.
The numbers here are for the three-way result, which means the wager is official after 90 minutes plus injury time; overtime does not count for purposes of this bet.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | Wynn | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +145 | 40.8 | +130 | 43.5 | +171 | 36.9 |
| Netherlands | +210 | 32.3 | +170 | 37.0 | +180 | 35.7 |
| Draw | +220 | 31.3 | +200 | 33.3 | +264 | 27.5 |
Again, at the +210 odds offered at the LVH – which imply a 32.3 percent chance to win – the Netherlands are a fine bet, according to AccuScore. The company’s model gives the Dutch a 35.7 percent chance to win and prices them at +180.
At +145, Argentina is overvalued, as is a draw, which has just a 27.5 percent chance of occurring, which translates into +264 odds.
The total: The average score through 10,000 simulations was Argentina 1.5 to Netherlands 1.4, suggesting a lean to OVER 2 goals (-115 at the LVH). There’s also an alternate total of 2.5 goals, where the OVER can be had for a juicy +165.
Props: The ‘yes’ side of two goal-scoring props at the LVH present betting value, according to AccuScore’s forecast. Argentina’s Lionel Messi has a 41 percent chance to score a goal, suggesting odds to bet ‘yes’ on that occurrence should be +143; the LVH is offering +155. The better wagering opportunity, though, appears to be Robin van Persie at a fat +235 to find the back of the net. While that number implies a 29.9 percent chance of occurrence, AccuScore gives van Persie a 40 percent chance for a brace, which translates to odds of +150.
A different take: Writes Goal.com handicapper Hugh Wilson, “It is worth looking at the highest-scoring-half market (a betting option available outside of Las Vegas). Netherlands have come alive in the second half of their World Cup matches so far in Brazil, with 80 per cent of their goals being scored in the second period. Just under half of the goals that they have netted have come between the 75-90 minute mark.
“With Argentina scoring over 60 percent of their goals in the second half of their World Cup matches, the price of the second 45 minutes to have the most goals at +120 is the play.”