LAS VEGAS – With Alabama still on the outside looking in on the top four in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, the Crimson Tide get another excellent opportunity to state their case when they visit LSU in a key SEC matchup on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, CBS). For their part, the Tigers have won 19 of their last 21 home games against conference opponents, and a win over Alabama as a home underdog would help them take a huge step forward toward the future.
The Line: Alabama -6.5, Total: 45.5
Line movement: Alabama opened as a 5.5-point road favorite at The Wynn sports book in Las Vegas on Sunday, jumping to -6 within a few minutes and then up to -6.5 on Monday. As of Thursday morning, most shops in Vegas were dealing -6.5, while MGM Resorts was still at -6. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite, failing to cover its past five....LSU is 3-0 ATS in its last three games as a home underdog....LSU is 19-2 SU in its last 21 home games against SEC opponents with losses to Mississippi State earlier this season and Alabama two years ago....The UNDER is 3-0-1 in LSU’s last four games as a home underdog....The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Top team on deck: The Crimson Tide may sit at No. 5 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but they will have a chance to state their case for a spot in the top four down the stretch, starting with this primetime matchup on the road against the Tigers. Alabama cannot afford to look past LSU though with upcoming home games against No. 1 Mississippi State on Nov. 15 and No. 3 Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 30.
Like the Tide, the Tigers are rolling with a three-game winning streak, and they have covered the spread in three of the last four regular-season meetings. The latest win for LSU came against Ole Miss, 10-7 as a 4-point home underdog on Oct. 25. The team was off last week.
Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports operations, said that while he believes Alabama is a better team than the Rebels, it’s hard to say how much in relation to the point spread. He said the difference between Ole Miss and the Crimson Tide is on the offensive side of the ball, where he thinks the latter has a definitive edge over LSU.
“Alabama’s probably going to score more than Mississippi,” Avello said. “Mississippi was a 4-point favorite, and Alabama’s better than them. But how much are they better than them? I don’t know. If this game goes to 7, it’ll be a takeback. So that’s why 6.5 might be as far as it goes during the week. We’ll see if it moves any more at the end of the week.”
LSU’s youth gaining experience: The Tigers have picked up steam toward the end of the season mainly because their younger players are growing up on the field, and their home field has translated to a 46-4 mark in night games under head coach Les Miles. Avello said LSU’s deep talent pool combined with their edge at Tiger Stadium makes them tough to beat there.
“Their home field is about as strong as anybody’s,” Avello said. “The one thing I keep thinking about, I’m not a big LSU fan, I’m not that crazy about the coach there. But he’s got great personnel. So how do they react to another big game at home?”
Weather: The forecast calls for mostly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power Ratings | ALA team page | LSU team page
The Linemakers' lean: We’re looking at a strong play on the UNDER with both defenses dominating. The strength of both teams, combined with conservative play calling, will keep the game low-scoring. LSU has found a nice recipe for success in covering its past three games, and we'll wait for the number to get to +7 before we take the Tigers. LSU has covered its past three games at home when getting points. The main play here -- a strong play -- is the UNDER, with a smaller lean to LSU in a tight game.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
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