AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the basketball season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines and spreads. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply or suggest a high chance of covering the spread, it’s a recommended play.
Having lost three of six since Kevin Durant went down with an ankle injury, the Thunder should be playing at a much different level once the reigning MVP returns to the lineup Wednesday. Winners of seven straight home games against Phoenix, the Thunder will look to finish out the calendar year on a winning note.
AccuScore has the Thunder as solid 67.8 percent favorites to win. Those percentages are strong and would warrant -210 on the money-line, but it is still not a recommended play, especially since Vegas is dealing the Thunder at -340.
However, value can be found wagering on the side and total.
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 106-101. There's a 56 percent chance the Suns cover a +7.5 spread.
AccuScore Best Bet: There is a 56.3 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 213.5.
Keep an Eye Out: While OKC does have three times the chance at a big win (10 points or more), keep an eye on the Suns' ball movement to help keep the game close. They average 4-5 more assists than the Thunder. Both have fairly comparable probabilities at close wins (four points or fewer).
Projected Leaders
Eric Bledsoe: 16 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 TOs
Russell Westbrook: 23 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 4 TOs
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