On Friday, the St. Louis Blues pulled in one of the biggest fish available prior to the NHL’s trade deadline when they acquired Ryan Miller from the Buffalo Sabres. And they paid a pretty penny to do so, surrendering Jaroslav Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier, a 2015 first-round pick and conditional 2016 third-round pick for Miller and Steve Ott.
The price was hefty, but the Blues are at tied with the Blackhawks atop the Central Division despite playing two fewer games. Overall they’re second in the NHL in points to the Ducks, and own the league’s best goal differential. They’re one of the best teams in the league and the favorite in Vegas, so if Blues felt as though they can upgrade at goal, this is certainly the time to go for it.
But did they actually upgrade? The numbers suggest it’s not clear-cut.
Miller’s even strength save percentage this season is .926. That’s right in line with the last five years. Over that span, he’s never posted an even-strength save percentage below .922, or one above .928. Since the NHL average has been around .920 over the last five seasons, that would clearly seem to indicate that Miller, on the whole, is above average. With goalie frequently fluctuating in production from year to year, (it can take three years of data to get a good sense of a goalie’s talent level) that says something.
But the Blues had a goalie already — one they felt very highly about a few years ago. So how did Halak measure up compared to Miller?
Halak’s peaks are higher. He’s gone above the .930 even-strength save percentage mark twice, though it’s worth noting that he played just 45 and 46 games in those seasons. He’s had two seasons above the average as well, but two in which his even-strength number was worse than the league as a whole. Those two years were 2012-13 and ’10-11.
As for this season, their even-strength numbers were remarkably similar: Miller’s was .926 and Halak’s .928. If you’re looking for where their seasons diverged, Miller’s save on the penalty kill is .908. Halak’s PK mark is .876.
Unfortunately for St. Louis, penalty killing save percentage is not something that has been shown to be repeatable as a skill. Beyond this year, Miller himself has only posted a save percentage above .900 once over the last six years- back in 09-10. Halak has never done it, though he has a pair of years early in his career at .892.
Given their performances over the last five years, it seems fair to say Miller is more consistent than Halak. Since Miller’s level equates to above-average goaltending, the Blues did upgrade the position. But there’s a difference between that and elite goaltending.
For example, Henrik Lundqvist posted three straight seasons (’10-11 through ’12-13) with an even -trength save percentage of .930 or better. And in ’09-10, Lundqvist had an even strength number of .929. He’s having a down season, with a number of .923, but is still not that far off Miller.
Or take Tuukka Rask. In his last two seasons as a starter, Rask’s even-strength save percentage is .938 and .939. Those are elite numbers. Or Jonas Hiller, who, despite a below average season in ’11-12, has been above .930 in every other season out of his last six.
That’s not to say Miller is a bad goalie, or even an average one. It just means that he probably isn’t quite elite. When the Blues already had goalie who was likely good, but not elite, it means they just surrendered a whole lot for consistency at a position where short-term peaks and valleys are quite common — just look at Halak himself when he stood on his head to upset the Capitals and Penguins in ’09-10.
If the Blues win the Stanley Cup, no one will care. But if they don’t, it will be worth wondering whether or not paying for above-average consistency, not elite production, was the right move.