Free agents: Ranking the top 10 pitchers

Ryan Fagan

Free agents: Ranking the top 10 pitchers image

Last offseason, the largest contract signed by a free-agent pitcher — aside from the massive deal the Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka to come over from Japan — was the four-year, $50 million deal the Brewers used to land to Matt Garza. 

At least three pitchers will exceed that number in the coming months. Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are no-doubt aces who will easily crack the $100-million barrier, and James Shields will sign well north of Garza’s total, too. 

And, as always, there are potential bargains and potential busts in this year’s free-agent mix. Some pitchers come attached with draft-pick compensation (which kicks in when they reject their team’s one-year qualifying offer of $15.3 million) and some don’t. Some are coming off fully healthy seasons and some are coming off rocky years. 

It’s all part of the fun. Welcome to the market.

 

1. SP Max Scherzer

Opening day age: 30

2014 stats: 33 starts, 3.15 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 10.3 K/9, 8.0 H/9

The Skinny: The Tigers have been braced for Scherzer’s entry into the free-agent market since the spring, when he turned down a reported six-year, $144 million extension, a deal that would have made him one of the highest-paid pitchers in baseball. Turning down such an offer — if those numbers are accurate, they represented basically zero “current-team” discount— was risky, but Scherzer made it through the season healthy, and statistically, he nearly matched his Cy Young season of 2013. So either he thinks he can make more than that $24 million AAV (average annual value) or secure more years, or he just doesn’t want to pitch for Detroit. 

Best fit: Everyone wants this guy. The Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs, three teams with deep pockets and intense motivations to make 2015 better than 2014, will likely be in the mix, and Scherzer — along with agent Scott Boras — will use those motivations to drive up the price (it’s worth pointing out a report in the New York Daily News that says the Yankees aren’t interested in any of the top-line free agents. The Orioles could use an ace atop their rotation. Don’t forget the Cardinals as a dark horse; Scherzer is from St. Louis and has talked openly in the past about the idea of pitching for his home-town team. 

 

2. SP Jon Lester

Opening day age: 31

2014 stats: 32 starts, 2.46 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 9.0 K/9, 7.9 H/9

The Skinny: Lester was outstanding in 2014. He was one of the few bright spots for a Boston team that crashed around him (2.52 ERA in 21 starts) and was a rock for the A’s after he was acquired in a deadline deal (2.35 ERA in 11 starts). He’s made at least 31 starts each of the past seven years, with an ERA above 3.75 only once (in 2012), and his playoff track record — 2.57 ERA in 14 games (12 starts) — won’t hurt his asking price, either.

Best fit: When he was dealt from the Red Sox to the A’s, there was talk of an offseason reunion between Lester and his former team. That still might happen, but if they weren’t able to work out an extension then, it won’t be any easier with other suitors throwing out big numbers for the best lefty starter on the market. It’s hard to imagine the Cubs missing out on both Scherzer and Shields, so we’ll give Joe Maddon’s new team the nod here. Of course, the fact that former Boston exec Theo Epstein is running the show in Chicago helps Lester’s chances of playing in Wrigley Field next year, too.

 

3. SP James Shields

Opening day age: 33

2014 stats: 34 starts, 3.21 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 7.1 K/9, 8.9 H/9

The Skinny: Shields is a notch below Scherzer and Lester on teams’ wish lists — he’s a couple years older, with lower strikeout rates — but he’s pretty clearly ahead of the next group of free-agent starters. Shields has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball; in each of the past eight years, he’s made at least 31 starts and thrown more than 200 innings. In his past two seasons with Kansas City, Shields has a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.53 FIP, and he’s clearly a good clubhouse guy, too. 

Best fit: Most predictions have Shields landing with the Red Sox, who certainly could use his stabilizing presence in their rotation after a disastrous 2014 season. But it wouldn’t be stunning to see the Cubs wind up with both Shields and either Scherzer or Lester. That Chicago rotation needs experienced help and Shields would provide that boost, especially if the Cubs could get him on a four-year deal. And after the experience of helping KC to the playoffs, it’s not hard to imagine Shields would relish the opportunity to do the same with the Cubs, especially now that his old manager, Maddon, is the Cubs’ new skipper. 

 

4. SP Brandon McCarthy

Opening day age: 31

2014 stats: 32 starts, 4.05 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 7.9 K/9, 10.0 H/9

The Skinny: McCarthy was outstanding after the Yankees traded for him midseason (2.89 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 14 starts) and not nearly as bad as his 5.01 ERA for Arizona before the deal suggested (he had a 3.82 FIP then). And his overall strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.30-to-1 was outstanding. He threw exactly 200 innings in 2014, the first time in his injury-interrupted career that he’s reached that mark. He’s hitting free agency at the perfect time, and could be a very good pickup for the right multiyear deal. 

Best fit: So many contenders or could-be contenders would love to land McCarthy on a three-year deal. Seriously, pick a team and McCarthy fits into the rotation. Maybe the Tigers? Nationals? Pirates? Rockies? Angels? Orioles? They’ll have to convince McCarthy to leave the Yankees, because word is they’re going to do their best to keep him around.

 

 

5. RP David Robertson

Opening day age: 29

2014 stats: 63 games, 39 saves (5 blown saves), 3.08 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 13.4 K/9, 6.3 H/9

The Skinny: The Yankees extended Robertson, their first post-Mariano Rivera closer, a qualifying offer, but it’s not hard to see him turning that one-year deal down if he feels he could find a four-year deal elsewhere, even though it would likely be for a lower average annual value. He’s young and strikes out a ton of batters — 96 in 64 2/3 innings this season — which are two pretty desirable qualities for teams seeking ninth-inning lockdowns.

Best fit: The draft-pick compensation might give some teams second thoughts about signing Robertson, but it won’t cripple his market (and some teams have protected first-rounders, remember). The Cubs have been tapped as favorites to land Robertson, though he’ll receive interest from teams like the Rangers and White Sox, too. And don’t ever count out Detroit in the ninth-inning mix. Yes, they still have both Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria on the payroll for 2015, but are they really willing to go through another year of those ups and downs? 

 

6. RP Andrew Miller

Opening day age: 29

2014 stats: 73 games, 2.02 ERA, 1.51 FIP, 14.9 K/9, 4.8 H/9

The Skinny: Miller was a failure as a starter, but since moving to the bullpen he’s become one of the elite left-handed relievers in baseball. He’s not attached to draft-pick compensation (because he was traded midseason, he’s not eligible) and he’ll land a deal of at least three years and probably four. He hasn’t been a closer in the past, but certainly has the stuff to make that happen. 

Best fit: Remember what we said about the Tigers and Robertson? Same thing goes for Miller, who was drafted and pitched parts of two years for Detroit before he was traded away in the deal that brought Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers. But now he’s an elite left-handed reliever who strikes out batters at a rate eclipsed by only Aroldis Chapman, so Miller will have plenty of suitors. 

 

7. SP Ervin Santana

Opening day age: 32

2014 stats: 31 starts, 3.95 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 8.9 H/9

The Skinny: Santana is back in a familiar spot, a free agent tied to draft-pick compensation seeking a long-term deal for lots of money. Last offseason, he didn’t find what he was looking for and wound up taking a one-year deal with Atlanta in spring training. Depending on who was telling the story, that was either due to the draft-pick thing or Santana’s asking price. He was good again, though, for the Braves and will have similar decisions to make — with a different agent, it should be noted.

Best fit: On a three-year deal, Santana would be an ideal fit for many teams looking to add a No. 3-type starter to the rotation. He could accept the Braves’ qualifying offer, though another one-year contract seems unlikely after he failed to land a multiyear deal last offseason. Don’t count out the rich teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs eyeing him as a second SP signing, though teams like the Giants, Rockies, Twins and White Sox are possibilities, too. 

 

8. SP Kenta Maeda

Opening day age: 26

2014 stats (in Japan): 26 starts, 2.56 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 7.7 H/9

The Skinny: There are no guarantees Maeda will be pitching in the big leagues in 2015, but we should find out if he’ll be posted by the Hiroshima Carp in the next couple weeks. He’s a right-handed starter who reportedly has a low-90s fastball and assortment of sharp breaking stuff. He’s not compared to Masahiro Takana or Yu Darvish, but he could be a solid impact guy in the middle of a good rotation.

Best fit: Because he’s not going to command a huge posting fee or massive contract like elite pitchers from Japan — and because he won’t have the draft-pick compensation tied to him like some other FA starters — the field is wide open for Maeda. He makes sense for the Giants and Astros and Cubs and pretty much every other club who would like rotation depth. Which, of course, is all the clubs. 

 

9. SP Francisco Liriano 

Opening day age: 31

2014 stats: 29 starts, 3.38 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 9.7 K/9, 7.2 H/9

The Skinny: Liriano has been the type of free-agent signing general managers dream of making, a one-year, $1 million deal with a vesting/club option that turned into two years as the ace of a staff that made the playoffs twice. In 55 starts for the Pirates, Liriano compiled a 3.20 ERA, 3.26 FIP and 9.4 strikeouts-per-nine innings, and he was brilliant in the 2013 wild-card game against the Reds. The Pirates were smart to extend him a qualifying offer. 

Best fit: Even though he was outstanding for Pittsburgh the past two seasons, there are still questions about his ability to stay healthy; he’s made more than last year’s 29 starts just once in his career. That’s a concern when draft-pick compensation is involved. Don’t rule out a return to the Pirates — by accepting the QO or on a multiyear deal. He’s been linked to teams like the Royals and Cubs and Diamondbacks and Red Sox. 

 

10. SP Jake Peavy

Opening day age: 33

2014 stats: 32 starts, 3.73 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 8.7 H/9

The Skinny: Peavy was outstanding for the Giants in the second half of the season, after they picked him up in a trade with the Red Sox. In his dozen starts, Peavy compiled a 2.17 ERA and allowed just 7.4 hits per inning. After an excellent NLDS start against the Nationals, Peavy struggled the rest of the playoffs, though, which might give teams pause. On the other hand, because he was traded midseason, he doesn’t come attached with the draft-pick compensation, which is key for a free agent at his level.

Best fit: Peavy was clearly comfortable with the Giants, so it makes sense that the sides will talk about maintaining that relationship. He’s won World Series rings each of the past two seasons, so he’s not likely to consider offers from teams out of contention. Peavy might look for a three-year contract, but it’s likely a two-year deal near his previous contract (two years, $29 million) will get the job done. For that money/commitment, teams like the Braves and Cubs make sense, too.

 

Ryan Fagan