Playoff selection plan: To err is human, to pare is divine

Matt Hayes

Playoff selection plan: To err is human, to pare is divine image

GRAPEVINE, Texas — At one point, while wading through this mosh pit of opinions and statistics and the ever-loving eye test, it hit me.

Is this the way it works at the Vatican?

Because after six hours of breaking down teams in every conceivable manner during Thursday's College Football Playoff Mock Selection, the reality is there's no right answer — four teams survive the process. Then the door opens and the committee chairman emerges and white smoke rises from the chimney.

Other than that, it's not anything you could imagine. There's nothing glorious or nefarious about this long and detailed look into the human condition.

You say yellow, I say blue, and somehow we find a way to green.

"Until you sit in the room, it's impossible to comprehend the dynamics of what goes on," CFP committee chairman Jeff Long said.

And just to be clear, that was Long himself Thursday, furiously taking notes on the process and how 17 media members debated a mock from the 2008 season that finished with Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Southern Cal in the hypothetical playoff.

Long is learning the dynamics of it all. He's trying to make sense out of the weight given to conference champions, or the importance of strength of schedule, or how much do head-to-head and comparative victories (or losses) really mean?

Because — I swear I'm not making this up — as quickly as committee members argue that body of work is more important than head-to-head, the argument turns for another scenario in which head-to-head becomes the deciding factor.

As quickly as committee members argue that comparative games should hold significant weight, the argument turns to conference championships or strength of schedule.

After years of coaches and media members rushing to vote on Sunday morning — and computer geeks doing what only they understand — we now have committee members holed up in a room all weekend watching games and sharing opinions and ideas and scenarios.

At times it was testy; at times it was plodding and frustrating. And yes, at times, it was blunt and revealing.

I went into the process convinced that Oklahoma, Florida, Texas and Alabama were my four. By the time we moved to the first of seven votes to decide the entire top 25 for 2008, my mind had changed to Texas, Florida, Oklahoma and Penn State.

How could I argue Southern Cal over Penn State, when both teams were conference champions but the Lions had the better resume between two common opponents? USC lost at Oregon State and beat Ohio State at home. Penn State beat Oregon State at home and beat Ohio State on the road.

Yet here is where the dynamics of the committee come into play; where everyone has an opinion of what matters most — and it's fluid on a case-by-case basis.

The only thing that rang true throughout the process was Alabama — which was unbeaten before losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game — wasn't as strong a candidate as many believed. That and the process of selecting teams isn't as simple as you'd think.

We voted three separate times on the top four, and each time the same four teams were selected in the same order. This was after vigorous debate, much centering on the rankings of Texas and Oklahoma and if either deserved to be No. 1 ahead of Florida.

It came down to five teams in the hunt for the four spots. One member voted Alabama, which finished No. 6, in the top four.

The real College Football Playoff selection committee also mocked the 2008 season earlier this year — and came up with the same four teams. Only not in the same order.

"You guys remember 2008 far better than what the committee did," CFP executive director Bill Hancock said. "You guys got after each other a lot more than the committee did, too."

So we've got that going for us when the real thing begins on Oct. 28 with the release of the first poll. The real committee, everyone, is more civil.

Until we're playing with real bullets in the chamber. Until the fate of four (and more) teams hang in the balance of 13 men and women who will argue everything from good wins, bad wins, comparative wins and conference championships to a boatload of statistical data and the eye test — and try to find common ground.

Until Long and Hancock emerge from the boardroom and announce the four teams playing in the first playoff. There will be no white smoke from the conclave room — only a white flag.

Here's your four teams, everyone.

Like it or not.

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Matt Hayes