It has been nearly seven months since Gabriel Martinelli has scored or assisted a goal. Since the start of last season, Martinelli has contributed to a goal in consecutive matches once.
In his latest performance, Martinelli was once again invisible as Arsenal played to a drab scoreless draw with Atalanta to begin Champions League play, nearly suffering defeat if not for David Raya's incredible double-save to keep the Italian side from cashing in on a penalty early in the second half.
Those are all facts, indisputable truths that underpin the struggles of Arsenal's most out-of-form winger.
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Yet those are only a snippet of the Brazilian's contributions to the Gunners in the past year-plus, and a deeper understanding of his performance are required to truly flush out what has gone wrong and what positives might be hidden under the veil.
With the imposing Manchester City up next in Premier League play, Martinelli's disappearing act is garnering attention. Former Manchester United defender and current TNT Sports pundit Rio Ferdinand said after the game that Martinelli "wasn't composed enough" in attempting to finish his big 75th-minute chance against Atalanta, claiming the Arsenal attack must "clean up their act" if they hope to have a chance against Pep Guardiola's powerful side.
So what's gone wrong with the Brazilian winger? His last strong stretch of contributions came nearly two seasons ago when he bagged eight goals and three assists in a stretch of 10 Premier League games between mid-February and mid-April of 2023. Since then, he has an abysmal six goals and four assists in 43 English top flight games, plus three total contributions in 10 other matches for the club outside of Premier League action.
A closer inspection of Martinelli's stats show that over the past calendar year, he's not lost his ability to carry the ball forward and take players on, ranking in the 90th percentile of European wingers for progressive carries with 5.58 per 90 minutes, and the 75th percentile for successful take-ons with 2.21 per 90. He also soars to the 98th percentile for progressive passes received with 14.67 per 90 minutes, showing he can get into dangerous areas and give his teammates options going forward.
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While Martinelli's progressive passes received puts him in just the 12th percentile, that's not as glaring an absence in his statistical profile as it might appear up front — in 2022/23, his best Premier League campaign, his numbers in that category ranked even lower, so it's not a massive issue.
No, Martinelli's possessional work rate and defensive contributions are all up to snuff. Where the dropoff occurs is, quite simply, his finishing. In that 22/23 season, Martinelli bagged 15 goals on 10.54 expected goals (xG), an exceptional performance in front of net. Since then, he's managed six goals on 7.46 xG, meaning he's not only finding himself with fewer chances in front of net, but also failing to cash them in.
In his 22/23 Premier League season, Martinelli missed just six opportunities categorized by Opta as "big chances," and in a similiar amount of minutes since the start of the 23/24 season, he's come up empty on the same amount. The issue, then, lies in the smaller opportunities — where Martinelli was scoring goals from chances most players would not be expected to score, those moments of magic are no longer paying off.
Martinelli was firing off shots with an average xG rating of 0.133 in the prolific 2022/23 season. Since, he has found himself on the end of chances worth an average of just 0.124, a significant dip in the quality of chances he's picking out.
As Arsenal blogger Scott Willis points out on CannonStats.com, Martinelli's overall production has dropped specifically in the aftermath of his foot injury midway through last season, which may have had an effect on his finishing as well, but his struggles in front of goal date back further than that ailment.
That puts even more pressure on Martinelli to make sure he takes every big chance he can muster, and that didn't happen against Atalanta, with his 75th minute miss coming on a chance worth 0.49 xG but failed to even hit the target.
Finishing is a fickle beast, but what is more worrying is his lack of creative contributions. As mentioned, Martinelli's progressive passing remains strong, but he's failing to generate chances for teammates at a high level. In the 22/23 season, Martinelli delivered five assists on 1.86 key passes per 90 minutes worth 9.35 expected assists (xA), giving him an average xA per shot assist of 0.158 xA, a beefy total. Since the start of the 23/24 season, while Martinelli's raw volume of key passes has increased, the quality of those opportunities has plummeted, worth just 0.125.
What could be the reason for that? Hard to tell, but one situational factor may be involved. Martinelli, a left winger, is deployed on the same side of the pitch as defensive-minded Declan Rice, which could be creating gaps on his side of the field, especially as right-wing star Bukayo Saka carves up defenses on the opposite flank. Rice's acquisition coincides well with Martinelli's drop-off. With the arrival of Mikel Merino, that could help alleviate the problem, but the new signing has yet to get stuck in thanks to an injury.
"Martinelli did himself no favors last night," said former Premier League striker Darren Bent speaking to talkSPORT about his 90 minutes against Atalanta. Whether the Brazilian gets another chance in a massive game against Man City this weekend remains to be seen.
